Friday, June 18, 2021

"Summer of freedom" in the US could torch our economy.

"President Biden announced Friday that 300 million coronavirus shots have been administered in the United States in the last 150 days," yahoo!sports. "65% of American adults have received at least one shot, and 55% of adults are fully vaccinated." "We're heading into, God willing, the summer of joy, the summer of freedom," Biden said. So what? "The Federal Reserve on Wednesday began closing the door on its pandemic-driven monetary policy as officials projected an accelerated timetable for interest rate increases, opened talks on how to end crisis era bond buying, and said the 15-month old health emergency was no longer a core constraint on US commerce," Reuters. For now, the Fed will continue "its benchmark short-term interest rate near zero" and will continue to "buy $80 billion in Treasury securities and $40 billion in mortgage-backed securities each month to fuel recovery". However, 13 of its 18 policymakers see a "lift off" in borrowing costs in 2023 and "Seven of the officials see rates moving higher next year". "If the Fed changed its position in line with the progress in economic recovery and the inflation situation in the US, in India too there have been growing concerns on inflation," The Indian Express, (TIE). In the US, "The consumer price index (CPI), which represents a basket including food, energy, groceries, housing costs and sales across a spectrum of goods, rose 5% from a year earlier," CNBC. However, core inflation was just 3.5%. In India, wholesale price inflation (WPI) reached a record 12.94% in May, while CPI was at 6.30% in May, TIE, while core inflation, which strips out volatile food and fuel prices, grew by 10% in May "compared to 8.3 percent in April 2021", NDTV.  Bank of America predicts US economic growth at 7% in 2021 and 4.4% in 2022, Business Insider. "That exceeds the Federal Reserves median estimates of 6.2% and 3.4% growth n 2021 and 2022, respectively." Economists at Goldman Sachs raised their growth prediction for 2021 to 8%, Axios. India's GDP contracted by 7.3% in 2020-21, TIE. It contracted by 24.4% in the first quarter (April-June) and by 7.4% in the second, but rose by 0.5% in the third quarter and by 1.6% in the fourth (January-March 2021). Agriculture was the only sector that grew in 2020-21 while all other sectors contracted. "Almost two-thirds of India's 1.35 billion population live in small towns and villages in the countryside, and the rural economy accounts for about a third of the country's gross domestic product (GDP)," Economic Times (ET), but this year may not see any growth "with rural households saddled in debt, unable to make purchases to drive their farm output, or keep money circulating in their communities". "India's agriculture sector is showing signs of a sudden spike in stress,"wrote Prof Himanshu. "Some of this is already visible in the slowdown in sales of agricultural machinery and decline in fertilizer consumption," Mint. "The skyrocketing price of shipping goods across the globe may hit your pocketbook sooner than you think -- from that cup of coffee you get each morning to the toys you were thinking of buying your kids," ET. "Inflation is rising," wrote Jeff Sommer. "We aren't returning to the white-hot inflation rate of 1980, which reached 14.8%. But there is enough evidence to believe that a further upturn in inflation is coming. The question is how much inflation and for how long," ET. "Some central banks are already responding to taper talks. In April, Canada's central bank became the first among Group of Seven nations to withdraw its pandemic era stimulus and signalled rates could begin to rise in 2022," ET. "Two emerging-market icons are watching prices jump and steering very different courses: Brazil is cracking down, while India prefers to wait and hope the phenomenon flames out on its owns," NDTV. By that time the economy could be burnt, like the dead bodies all over India, BBC. The dead don't complain.        

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