Monday, June 21, 2021

Don't blame the world when you are fanning flames.

Central government employees are to get Dearness Allowance (DA), which is a hedge against rising prices, from January 2020 to June 2021, as per the 7th Pay Commission. It will be calculated as 4% of basic salary from January to June 2020, 3% from June to December 2020, and 4% from January to June 2021. Thus, except for the 6 months between June and December 2020 they get 4%, which means that they are going to receive a total of 7% in the financial year 1 April 2020-31 March 2021 as compensation for inflation. Why so much? "In 2020, the average CPI inflation was 6.63%," wrote Joydeep Sen, And "The RBI is projecting inflation at 5% or a little north of 5% till September," Mint. According to inflation.eu, the average CPI inflation was at 5.58% in 2020, and is at 4.62% in 2021.  It is impossible to understand this enormous handout to the overpaid burden on the Indian taxpayer when we are paying around 60% taxes on petrol and diesel, The Print. "Retail inflation accelerated to a six-month high of 6.3 percent in May, breaching the upper tolerance limit of the inflation target set by the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy committee," Business Standard. "Wholesale price inflation climbed to 12.94% compared to -3.37% in May 2020 due to base effect," Economic Times (ET). Core inflation, which strips out volatile food and fuel prices, jumped by 10% in May compared to 8.3% in April 2021, NDTV. In 2007-08, one US dollar bought 40 Indian rupees, wikipedia. Today $1 will buy Rs 74, Xe. The reason why the rupee has fallen nearly 90% against the US dollar is because of inflation which erodes the buying power of the rupee. The highest average inflation in the US since 2007 was in 2008 when it rose to 3.85%, followed by 3.16% in 2011, following which it has stayed well below 3%, Inflation data.com. It was 1.24% in 2020 and 1.81% in 2019. However, "US consumer prices spiked last month, with the inflation rate accelerating to 5 percent for the 12 months ending May," and core consumer price index rose 3.8 percent over the last year," Times of India (TOI). "Consumer prices paid by city dwellers in the US rose more than 7% last month and more than 9% in April on an annualized basis. If this keeps up for the rest of then year, it will be the highest inflation rate America has experienced since the 1980s," wrote Allison Schrager. At its latest meeting the US Federal Reserve forecast two interest rate hikes in 2023 but left the rate at zero lower bound for now and will continue buying $120 billion worth of bonds every month, CNBC. The bond market is not worried. "Yields fell over the previous week and remain low by historical levels, even after rising on the back of Jay Powell's speech on Wednesday," Mint. The reason for low yields is the enormous bond buying by the government, which increases bond prices and lowers yields, as well as reduced bond sales by the Fed, creating scarcity. But bond yields are poor at predicting inflation. "In the last 70 years, bond yields rarely rose ahead of inflation, going up only after inflation takes hold." According to the Fed, the UK economy will regain its pre-pandemic level by the final quarter of 2021, Italy will grow at 5% this year, China's economy will be steady, and "Real estate prices are flashing the kind of bubble warnings that haven't been seen since the run up to the 2008 financial crisis, according to Bloomberg Economics," TOI. In India, bond yields are hovering at around 6%, Investing.com because the RBI is playing the Fed's game of buying government bonds to suppress yields in its Government Securities Acquisition Programme (G-SAP), which is an alias for quantitative easing. Trouble is that the US government can print dollars but not the RBI. India's trade deficit was $6.28 billion as imports rose 73%, Business Standard. Import prices are unlikely to fall as shipping costs are likely to remain high in the medium term. If the RBI continues to fan inflation the rupee could fall precipitously which would cause even higher prices. Hope they don't blame the world when they are fanning flames. They are responsible.

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