Are we in a cycle of stagflation already?

"India's exports grew by 80 percent to $7.04 billion during the first week of May, as per the preliminary data released by the commerce ministry," Business Today. "Exports rose to $30.21 billion in April 2021 compared to $10.17 billion in April 2020." "The impressive economic recovery from September 2020 was likely powered by a rebound in consumer spending," wrote Niranjan Rajadhyaksha. Economists at the Azim Premji University estimated that "the share of wages in gross domestic product (GDP) fell by more than five percentage points, from 32.5% in the second quarter (1 July-30 September) 2019-20 to 27% in that quarter of 2020-21." "On the other hand, corporate profits have grown strongly in 2020-21 because of a variety of factors, including lower wage, interest and input costs," MInt. However, companies are not increasing capacity but are using the extra profits to pay off debts. This is because of a deadly second wave of coronavirus infections, BBC, when the number of new infections in 24 hours reached a world record of over 400,000, Hindustan Times (HT). No wonder, "India's consumers' confidence is plumbing new lows, adding to a string of grim data in an economy clobbered by the world's worst coronavirus outbreak. The current situation index fell to a record 48.5 in May from 53.1 in March, according to the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) consumer confidence survey, where 100 is level that divides pessimism from optimism," Economic Times (ET). The RBI survey also found that the Future Expectations Index (FEI) has been declining since Prime Minister Narendra Modi was re-elected in May 2019, the sentiment on employment has been worsening since Modi was first elected in 2014 and the outlook on incomes has also been falling since 2014, wrote Udit Misra. The RBI also collected data on non-essential spending, such as leisure travel, eating out, luxury items etc, which showed that "while Indians had started curtailing spending on non-essential items since the middle of 2018, the pandemic simply pulled the metrics into the negative territory", The Indian Express (TIE). The government wants the private sector to increase capacity to create new jobs, but they won't do that unless consumers sharply increase spending and "for that to happen, household incomes have to go up; and for that to happen, the employment prospects have to brighten; and for that to happen, again, companies have to invest in new capacities". A cycle of stagnation. Despite low consumer demand, the consumer price index (CPI) averaged 6.2% in 2020-21 and is predicted to be 5% this year, wrote Dharmakirti Joshi & Adish Verma. "However, upside risks to this have emerged, not only from food but also the other two major categories -- fuel and light and core. Put another way the hydra has reared its head again," Mint. "Even as prices have risen in the wholesale market, a commensurate pass-through to retail or end-consumer prices has not happened yet."If the information that we are getting from rural areas is any indication, we may start seeing consumer price inflation starting to inch northwards. Not inch, maybe even speed northwards," said former member of the Planning Commission Pronab Sen. Some people are predicting a K shaped recovery but, "In reality, though, there is no such thing as a K-shaped recovery," wrote Prof Himanshu. "Our economy has been slowing down for sometime now, with the GDP growth decelerating to an unimpressive 4% in 2019-20,  the pre-pandemic year," Mint. "The average cost of petrol in Mumbai has risen above Rs 100 ($1.4) this month, 50 to 70 percent more than in Bangkok, Hanoi and Manila," Al Jazeera. "It's for the Centre that must do the heavy lifting to backstop our economy. As the crisis of the past two months begins to let up, this would be a good time for a fiscal boost," Mint. Other countries will grow. India will be left behind.