Tuesday, June 29, 2021

It is all due to the premorbidity.

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman announced new measures to stimulate the economy. "Rs 1.1 lakh crore (Rs 1.1 trillion) loan guarantee scheme for Covid affected sectors", including Rs 500 billion for the heath sector. Rs 1.5 trillion for Emergency Credit Line Guarantee Scheme, loans to micro finance institutions, loans to tourism sector, free visas to 500,000 people and subsidies for fertilizers, job creation, free food grains for the poor, public health and exports, Economic Times (ET). "Estimating the additional burden on the 2021-22 budget from three direct stimuli in the package at Rs 1,18,390 crore (Rs 1.184 trillion) or 0.5% of GDP for the fiscal year, EY said this was of limited magnitude. If the guarantee schemes and the announcements that had already been made earlier are excluded, the step up in the fiscal outgo within FY22 could be just Rs 60,000 crore (Rs 600 billion), Icra noted," The Financial Express. "Industry leaders and economists said the new loan guarantees, amounting to $35 billion, may provide some temporary relief but would not be sufficient to boost economic growth," ET. The word 'stimulus' has completely different meanings in India and the US. In the US, President Joe Biden signed a $1.9 trillion relief package which will give direct cash payments of up to $1,400 to most Americans, CNBC. In 2020, the US government spent $2 trillion in March to give cash payments of $1,200 for individuals and $500 added for every child, as well as grants to various sectors, CNBC, and another $900 billion in December which provided $600 to individuals, CNN. In India, Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced a grand package of Rs 20 trillion to stimulate the economy in May last year, Hindustan Times (HT). This was announced in 5 tranches over 5 days by Sitharaman. "Dubbed Atmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyan, this Covid relief package puts bold reforms at the heart of Modi's stated plan to make India self-reliant so that any other crisis that may emerge in future could be efficiently tackled," ET. However, calculations of hours of drama played out over 5 days showed that fiscal spending would be Rs 1.50 trillion which was 0.75% of the GDP, ET. "A large part of the rest of the package is actually loans provided by banks, many of them without collateral, leveraging $105 billion of liquidity provided by the central bank, government officials said," ET. The Reserve Bank (RBI) has maintained a negative real interest for the last one year and has resorted to quantitative easing under the guise of Government Securities Acquisition Programme (G-SAP) to flood the economy with liquidity, The Indian Express. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the RBI kept the policy rate unchanged at 4% and Governor Shaktikanta Das announced that the central bank would purchase (government) bonds worth Rs 1.20 lakh crore (Rs 1.20 trillion) under GSAP 2.0 from July to September," ET. Cheap loans have been utilised by companies to reduce their debts. "An analysis of the top 15 sectors, representing more than 1,000 publicly traded firms, by research arm of State Bank of india (SBI), showed companies reduced debt of more than Rs 1.7 trillion in FY21," Mint. Meanwhile, "India's debt soared to 58.8% of the gross domestic product in the fiscal year ended March from 51.6% a year ago as the economic contraction forced the government to borrow a record amount to meet revenue shortfall, finance ministry data showed, prompting experts to raise concerns over debt sustainability in the medium term," HT. Why so? "India's GDP -- at a high of 7-8% when Mr Modi took office -- had fallen to its lowest in a decade -- 3.1% -- by the fourth quarter of 2019-20," BBC. Just as people with premorbid conditions were more likely to die of the coronavirus, so the premorbid Indian economy is gasping due to the virus. All down to the government and RBI.

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