Smaller trough, so many snouts.

India suffered a balance of payments crisis in 1991, when foreign exchange reserves fell to $1.2 billion in January, which was sufficient for 3 weeks of imports, and had to mortgage 67 tons of gold to borrow money from the Bank of England and the Union Bank of Switzerland, wikipedia. This led to economic reforms under the then Prime Minister Narasimha Rao and a dismantling of the licence/permit Raj, wikipedia. However, annual growth rate did not differ much from the 1980s. "India moved to a higher growth trajectory only after the year 2000," wrote Niranjan Rajadhyaksha. Maybe, but, "Independent India had a severe balance of payments crisis almost once every decade: 1957, 1966, 1981, 1990. There has been no comparable crisis over the past 30 years, despite a scare in 2013." After hitting a record high of $608.081 billion, India's foreign exchange reserves fell by $4.148 billion to $603.933 billion in the week ending 18 June, Times of India (TOI). This should help India to defend the rupee if and when the US Federal Reserve starts tightening monetary policy, "but analysts and traders warn a slowing economy and an expanding fiscal deficit still make it particularly vulnerable to capital flight", Business Today. "India has reached the end of the road of the gains made from the 1991 moment," wrote Yamini Aiyar. Because, "Corruption scandals under the United Progressive Alliance regime, the twin balance sheet problem, the consolidation of capitalist oligarchies and increased opacity in electoral  finances under the current government are illustrations of this entrenched cronyism, notwithstanding reforms such as the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code," Hindustan Times (HT). Foreign currency reserves have increased because "Our imports of goods in 2020-21 fell to $392.2 billion from $474.2 billion in 2019-20," wrote Vivek Kaul, but our exports and inward remittances did not fall as much, Mint. Also, "India has emerged as the biggest recipient of foreign portfolio investments this fiscal with net inflows worth Rs 2.6 lakh crore (Rs 2.6 trillion), driven by ample liquidity in global markets and hopes of faster economic recovery, according to experts," The New Indian Express. "India's record more than $600 billion of foreign exchange reserves might not be good enough, as it falls short on some measures including import cover and liability outflows, according to new research from the central banks," wrote Anirban Nag. "The pile is the world's fifth-biggest after China, Japan, Switzerland and Russia, and is enough to cover 15 months of imports. That's less than the 39 months' cover offered by Switzerland's reserves, 22 by Japan's, 20 by Russia's and 16 months by China's pile, according to the RBI researchers. Besides, India's net international position -- which is assets over liabilities -- is a minus 129% of gross domestic product. The minus figure denotes that liabilities owed to foreigners are more than assets," Economic Times (ET). In 2019-20, India's GDP was Rs 146 trillion, fell to Rs 135 trillion in 2020-21 and is expected to grow to Rs 146 trillion in 2021-22 if the growth rate is 8.3%, wrote Udit Misra. So, India would have lost full two years of growth. Even if growth jumps to 10.1%, GDP will reach only Rs 149 trillion. Inflation, both retail and wholesale, is going up, bank credit to commercial sector is plummeting because of low consumer demand and the government is spending less," The Indian Express (TIE). The Covid crisis has driven the government back to the sleight of hands of the 1980s, which resulted in the balance of payments crisis in 1991. The RBI transferred Rs 991.22 billion to the government as dividend for the 9 months to 31 March, which is second only to that of Turkey, TOI.  "The government is set to see a dividend windfall thanks to its holdings in public sector undertakings," HT. "It's not just politicians linked to the ruling BJP who have been made independent Directors of Public Sector Undertakings. When it comes to patronage from the ruling establishment, officialdom isn't far behind," TIE. So many snouts in the trough. The trough is getting smaller. Another crash?