Thursday, June 24, 2021

Control your own karma, don't beg.

"High consumer and wholesale price inflation numbers amid low/no growth have made matters interminably worse for the Indian economy. Note: We are now in a red alert zone on stagflation," wrote Prof Deepanshu Mohan. As the economy opens up from regional lockdowns, households and firms will buy what they need regardless of supply constraints, which will result in higher prices. Mohan recommends, "On the fiscal front, what is required at this point is the provision of greater direct income support through unconditional cash transfers to households, giving them the means to spend." But, that will just stimulate independent spending which will push prices even higher as per Mohan's analysis. "The government should not be deterred by a worsening fiscal deficit in the short run as the additional growth that it generates may make debt consolidation easier when things normalise," agreed Abhishek Anand and Lekha Chakraborty. "The RBI has reduced the benchmark repo rate by115 basis points since 2020. With headline as well as core inflation inching up in recent months, the RBI may not be in a position to further cut the policy rate." What the economists do not explain is, what is the point in increasing subsidies to people when the government is directly sucking money out of people's pockets by consistently increasing the price of petrol and diesel to new record levels everyday? goodreturns.in. This is because of soaring taxes on fuel. "Over the past five years, the central government's excise duty collection from petrol rose 167 percent from Rs 27,279 crore (Rs 272.79 billion) in 2014-15 to Rs 78,230 crore in 2019-20. This has further increased to Rs 89,575 crore (Rs 895.75 billion) during the April to January period of 2020-21, owing to the rise in taxes last year. A similar hike was seen in diesel, with excise collection almost tripling to Rs 1,23, 266 crore (Rs 1.233 trillion) in 2019-20 from Rs 42,881 crore in 2014-15. For the April to January period of 2020-21, this has further increased to Rs 2,04,906 crore (Rs 2.049 trillion)," moneycontrol. com. So, not only are we forced to pay exorbitant prices to fill own vehicles, we have to pay higher prices for everything because of rising transport costs. "Union petroleum minister Dharmendra Pradhan on Thursday asked oil producers' cartel -- Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) -- for restoring output to bring down international crude oil prices to a reasonable band, adding that their strategy of production squeeze is stoking inflation and restricting economic recovery of energy importers such as India," Hindustan Times (HT). How our government can ask other nations to sacrifice their earnings so that it can tax the bejesus out of its own citizens would be amusing if it was not so mystifying. India's imports of oil from the Middle East fell to 52.7% of its total imports in May, from 67.9% in April, HT. Fair play to us. That's how the market operates. On 21 June, the price of petrol in the US varied from $2.726 per US gallon on the Gulf Coast to $3.764 on the West Coast, eia. This gives an average of about $3.5 per US gallon which works out to about Rs 70 per liter. The consumer price index in the US jumped to 5% year-on-year in May, US Bureau of labor Statistics. "The US dollar held near multi-month highs on Friday as investors warily awaited US inflation data," Reuters. "The blue-chip Dow and the S&P 500 were set for their worst day in a month after Bullard, president of the St Louis Federal Reserve, said he was among the seven officials who saw rate increases beginning next year to contain inflation," Economic Times (ET). "Higher rates in the US could hit Indian stocks badly, weaken the rupee and raise landed price of crude oil. This  could result in inflationary pressure," Jagadish Shettigar & Pooja Misra. Will India ask the US Federal Reserve not to increase policy rates because it will cause our economy to tank? "Two emerging-market icons are watching prices jump and steering very different courses: Brazil is cracking down, while India prefers to wait and hope the phenomenon flames out on its own," wrote Daniel Moss. "Karma is in our hands," said Lord Krishna in the Gita. Begging is not karma. 

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