Saturday, June 19, 2021

Why doesn't the RBI trust Indian companies?

"The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is assessing the option of investing in top-rated foreign corporate bonds to generate higher yields," Moneycontrol. "If the plan is approved, it would be a change from the central bank's existing strategy, where it typically invests in gold and sovereign debt, Mint has reported." This is because, "According to the RBI, forex reserves increased by $6.8 billion in the week ended June 4 to $605 billion," Times of India (TOI). "The current level of forex reserves are enough to cover nearly 16 months of imports." "Foreign exchange reserves can include banknotes, deposits, bonds, treasury bills and other government securities," Investopedia. Foreign currencies are held mainly in dollars but can also be held in the British pound, the euro or the Japanese yen "to ensure that a central government agency has backup funds if their national currency rapidly devalues or becomes altogether insolvent". "US foreign exchange reserves totaled $129 billion, as of January 2020, compared to china's $3.1 trillion." India now has the fourth highest reserves of foreign currencies after China, Japan and Switzerland and just above Russia, wikipedia. So, what is the problem? "We may be the only large Asian country with a current account deficit, i.e., we import much more than we export, and still have large foreign exchange reserves," TOI. Foreign exchange comes into India through foreign portfolio investment (FPI) into shares and bonds, through foreign direct investment (FDI), totalling nearly $500 billion in the last decade, and through external commercial borrowings. "The total outstanding foreign loans are $560 billion, or about 93% of our foreign exchange reserves." The problems are: 1. Foreign currencies earn virtually no returns. "After concluding its first policy meeting of  2021, the Fed decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0-0.25%," Business Standard. Which means, buying US Treasuries yield no interest. At the same time, US consumer price index (CPI) rose to 5% in May, CNBC, which means the dollar buys less than before, so the RBI is suffering a capital loss. 2. "On a 12-month rolling basis, Indian equities have seen $34.3 billion in net inflows from FPIs, almost $20 billion more than the net inflows seen by Brazil, the only other major emerging market of similar size to see net inflows in the same period," Economic Times (ET). This is despite, "The MSCI India index, a gauge of 86 stocks, is currently priced at 22 times one-year forward earnings, close to the peak seen on the eve of Global Financial Crisis and the burst of the 'Dot Com' bubble in 2000." An asset price bubble. 3. If FPIs suddenly decide to sell Indian securities it can cause enormous volatility in our markets and in the value of the rupee. 4. The RBI balance sheet is measured in rupees so whenever the rupee weakens against foreign currencies it is seen as a profit for the RBI and is passed on to the government. Recently, "the RBI approved a transfer of Rs 99,122 crore (Rs 991.22 billion) as surplus to the central government for the accounting period for nine months ended March 31, 2021, India Today. "On August 26, 2019, the RBI transferred its highest ever surplus of Rs 1.76 lakh crore (Rs 1.76 trillion) to the government, acting on the recommendations of a committee chaired by Bimal Jalan, former RBI governor, on capital transfer." As RBI buys dollars from the market it releases an equivalent amount of rupees which is fueling inflation. CPI rose to 6.3% in May while the wholesale price inflation (WPI) came is at a record 12.94%, Business World. This is despite a government mandate of maintaining inflation at 4% (+/- 2%), Business Standard, which means the RBI should be striving to bring down inflation by increasing interest rate. Inflation is a tax on our spending. We could be forgiven for thinking that it is punishing Indians to help the government because higher prices result in higher tax collections and a fall in the value of the rupee depreciates government debt. The US government bought toxic assets through its Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) during the subprime crisis, wikipedia, on which it made a profit of $30.7 billion, American Banker. Why doesn't the RBI buy bonds of Indian companies? Is it because it fears the rupee and the economy could collapse? It will be partly responsible.         

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