Monday, June 07, 2021

Why not abolish the RBI and save vast sums of money?

"Inflation is rising. It would be wise to prepare for it," wrote Jeff Sommer. It won't reach 14.8% as in 1980, "But some highly qualified independent economists say the inflation rate could exceed 4 percent and even reach 7 percent over the next few years," Economic Times (ET). The Federal Reserve "expects inflation to average 2.4 percent this year and decline to 2.1 percent by 2023". University of Pennsylvania economist Jeremy J Siegel thinks that "while the Fed will need to respond, it's not likely to be facing a runaway wage-price spiral, requiring the harsh medicine of recession, the cure imposed by Paul Volcker after he became Fed chairman in 1979". "For the first time in a generation, workers are gaining the upper hand," wrote Neil Irwin. "Up and down the wage scale, companies are becoming more willing to pay a little more, to train workers, to take chances on people without traditional qualifications and to show greater flexibility in where and how people work." "Population growth for Americans between ages of 20 and 64 turned negative last year for the first time in the nation's history. "Compensation for workers without a college degree was 19% or $10,000 higher in March than in November 2019. That surely is wage inflation. The US Fed has started quietly withdrawing support to financial markets, wrote Brian Chappatta. It announced that "it would start gradually selling the $13.7 billion portfolio of US corporate debt and exchange-traded funds it amassed through its secondary market corporate credit facility", Mint. In India the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) "kept the key lending rate, or the repo rate, unchanged at 4 percent for the sixth time in a row and slashed the growth rate to 9.5 percent for fiscal 2021-22", The Indian Express (TIE). While predicting average retail inflation at 5.1%, the RBI warned about rising commodity prices and supply side constraints. "Excise duties, cess and taxes imposed by the Centre and States need to be adjusted in a coordinated manner to contain input cost pressures emanating from petrol and diesel prices." "Fuel prices have been hiked 18 times in the last one month. In 18 hikes, petrol has risen by Rs 4.36 per litre and diesel by Rs 4.93 a litre since May 4," ET. "According to RBI's Annual Report 2020-21, inflation averaged 6.2% last year," wrote Mythili Bhusnurmath. The MPC has painted itself into a corner. "Thanks to its policy of consistently favouring growth over inflation, regardless of gathering storm clouds on the price front, or indeed much thought to whether its policy was achieving the stated goal of incentivising growth, it was left with no wiggle room. Any other action would have risked rocking the boat, since the MPC has, all along, lulled markets into into believing it will remain accommodative for as long as growth is anaemic," Mint. Not just that, "Governor Shaktikanta Das said the central bank will buy an additional Rs 1.2 trillion of bonds in the September quarter under the Government Securities Acquisition Programme (GSAP) to keep interest rates low and support the government's borrowing programme because of a slowdown in tax collections because of the pandemic," Mint. In addition, the RBI has transferred a whopping Rs 99,122 crore (Rs 991.22 billion) as surplus to the central government while maintaining its Contingency Risk Buffer at the lower limit of 5.50%, Business Today. In fact, tax collections have not been low. Goods and Services Tax (GST) collections reached a record Rs 1,41,384 crore (Rs 1.41384 trillion) in April, UNI, despite local and regional lockdowns because of coronavirus infections. In May, GST collection was slightly lower at Rs 1.02709 trillion and has remained above Rs 1 trillion for 8 months straight, Hindustan Times (HT). The RBI is just a department of the Central Government. ""Among the pioneering economists who built RBI's research prowess in the post-independence era, (Anand) Chandravarkar considered RBI to have been more independent during the British Raj than in independent India," Mint. What use is a government poodle? Why not abolish the RBI and let the Finance Ministry set policy? At least it will save humongous amount of money.         

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