We may think we are Atmanirbhar, but the world still matters.

"The economic survey tabled on Friday sees a robust growth of 11% for the fiscal year beginning on April 1 on the back of the nationwide vaccination and a rebound in consumer demand. The survey predicts a contraction of 7.7% in this financial year. The survey advises increased spending by the government without fear of credit rating agencies which rate India at just above junk status. "Never in the history of sovereign credit ratings has the fifth largest economy in the world been rated as the lowest rung of the investment grade (BBB-/Baa3)," wrote Chief Economic Adviser KV Subramanian. According to the Reserve Bank (RBI) gross non-performing assets (GNPA) of commercial banks may rise to 13.5% by September 2021, and "If the macroeconomic environment worsens into a severe stress scenario, the GNPA ratio may escalate to 14.8 percent". The GNPA ratio of public sector banks (PSB) may rise to 16.2% by September. Unless the government recapitalises PSBs they cannot lend, despite negative real interest rate which is depleting returns from savings. Lots of spending to boost the economy will not be easy, wrote Andy Mukherjee. "For one thing, the pandemic has upset business-as-usual calculations of how much to spend, on what, and how to finance it. For another, an impatience to make up for lost time has to be weighed against a shrinking of policy space in emerging markets: A reprise of the 2013 global taper tantrum could compound the country's considerable domestic challenges." In August 2013, the rupee registered "its biggest single day loss of 256 paise to close at a new historic low of 68.80 against the US dollar", when the then Chair of the US Federal Reserve Ben Bernanke hinted at a reduction of bond buying by the Fed. To guard against a flight of dollars the RBI has built up reserves of $585.334 billion but buying dollars releases a flood of rupees into the market which has pushed the Sensex to stratospheric levels. Foreign investors have poured a lot of money into Indian stocks and they will lose a lot of money in conversion if the rupee tanks against the dollar. India cannot beat China with 'jugaad', which means getting by with limited resources, and so must invest in R&D. But the government has been increasing tariffs on imports to protect domestic industries, thus discouraging spending on R&D. No country can grow 8-10% without opening up of the market, said Prof Arvind Panagariya. Finally, the survey advises a reduction in regulation. Sadly, "the system as whole is geared to, and, more importantly, strongly disposed to holding back and throttling India because its operating philosophy is distrust and cynicism," wrote Prof VA Nageswaran. A survey is meant to provide a true picture. Only then can it suggest correct policy. Else, it becomes a commercial.