Sunday, January 31, 2021

An annual circus. Will it be any different?

 Today is the annual Indian circus, known as 'The Budget', presented with great fanfare in a red box by the Finance Minister every year in the tradition of Britain where the Chancellor of Exchequer carries his speech in a red box. The Budget is prepared by Indian Administrative Service (IAS) officers with a 'halwa' (Indian semolina pudding) ceremony. The IAS is a continuation of the British Indian Civil Service (ICS), which ruled India with an iron hand but with complete integrity and loyalty to the Crown, and with the same power but without the integrity or loyalty to the people of India. Every year, CEOs of companies in various sectors go begging for sops, such as tax relief, protection against foreign competition by increasing tariffs, concessions on exports and other handouts.  CEOs, economists and citizens differ in what they would like from the budget, wrote Malini Goyal and SN Sharma, but "there is near-alignment on what the three sections are worried about most -- jobs". "For creating employment  and livelihoods, a stable tax regime is strongly desired," wrote Director General of the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) Chandrajit Banerjee. "Keeping in view the fiscal constraints, CII has not suggested any significant deductions or exemptions in direct taxation, and therefore, its tax recommendations are focused mainly on clarity in law, simplification of procedures and reduction of litigation to facilitate business transactions which would make doing business easier for industry." Corporate taxes were suddenly reduced in September 2019, well after the budget, presumably because economic growth was in a steep dive and the government was desperate to revive private investment. "According to the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), out of the 94 tax jurisdictions studied in 2017, India had the highest statutory corporate income tax rate of 48.3%, including tax on distributed dividends," wrote Ashish Khetan. India will lose Rs 1.45 trillion in tax collections because of the tax cut and it would have benefited the economy much more if the government had spent it on building infrastructure than on giving more money to industrialists, wrote Khetan. "CII has suggested the lowest of 'nil' slab for inputs on raw materials, a top slab of 5-7.5% for final products, and 2.5-5% for intermediate goods. This will help Indian industry integrate with global value chains and turn its goods and services competitive in world markets." "An inverted duty structure is said to exist when the duty rate for the overall finished good is lower than that of its component parts, thereby rendering such a product's final manufacture in the country uncompetitive," wrote C Veeramani and Anwesha Basu. "World export of network products amounted to $5.6 trillion in 2018, of which India's share was a paltry 0.5% ($27 billion) compared to China's 17.5% ($981 billion)." Not just bad taxes on Indians. "Retro tax is a bad idea but stiffing Cairn Energy on an arbitration settlement only makes it worse," wrote Bloomberg. Not much point tinkering with taxes when the government is bleeding the economy through exorbitant taxes on fuel. "India's ranking on the Corruption Perception Index -- 2020 slipped from 80 to 86 even as its score decreased only by one point from 40 to 41 in 2019." Confusing taxes enable rent seeking by politicians and civil servants and high rates are essential because subsidy bill keeps rising to win elections. We will watch the circus. Sadly, the clowns will not make us laugh.             

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