Monday, January 25, 2021

What's the point of transfusing own blood into the economy?

 The services sector "contributed 55.39% to India's Gross Value Added (GVA) at current prices in FY20," says India Brand Equity Foundation (IBEF). Services sector's GVA grew at a CAGR (compound annual growth rate) of 1.45% to US$1,064.8 billion in FY20 from US$1,005 billion in FY16. According to RBI data, in August 2020, services exports stood at Rs 122,768.07 crore (US$16.44 billion), while imports stood at Rs 71,662.62 crore (US$9.60 billion)." Since services contribute a major part of the economy, "The biggest drag on the economy today is the fear of infection, so people are reluctant to resume service activities like travel, going to shops, entertainment, pilgrimages, and dozens of other things," wrote SA Aiyar. "No amount of fiscal stimulus will revive the economy until fear is cured and service activities resume. To diminish fear, the top priority of the budget must be to vaccinate as many as possible as quickly as possible." "Vaccination should be free". Congress politician Praveen Chakravarty agrees that "the economy will benefit enormously if most Indians are vaccinated", but he wants to increase the securities transaction tax (STT) by 0.1%, or 10 basis points, "on the value of all buy and sell transactions in shares and derivatives in the stock market". Trouble with a tax is that it tends to become permanent, as politicians feel that people are used to paying it, and it tends to creep up over the years. "In the 15 years since STT was introduced in March 2005, rates have been increased four times. But there has been no consequent reduction in stock market activity," wrote Chakravarty. Exactly. "The economy will recover in 2021 and we expect GDP growth to rise by 13.6%," wrote Jahangir Aziz. Despite such a high rate of growth "the level of GDP will still be 4-5% below its pre-pandemic path at end-March 2022. This is akin to losing $200 billion for two straight years." And most of this income loss has fallen on households and on small and medium enterprises (SME). Jahangir advises increased government spending on income support and on healthcare and not be worried about increased fiscal deficit. But, what is the point of spending more if the government squeezes it out of people by indiscriminate increase in taxes? The Ministry of Road Transport and Highways (MoRTH) proposed a 'Green Tax' or pollution tax of 10-25% on transport vehicles older than 8 years at the time of renewal of fitness certificate. Rising transport costs will surely result in increasing prices of goods we buy. "With the post-tax return on fixed deposits plummeting to 4%, way below consumer inflation, more and more investors are driven towards equities, notwithstanding the risks," wrote an editorial in the Economic Times. "The story is playing out in a market that has run ahead of fundamentals: the Sensex is trading 31-32 times its earnings against an average price-to-earnings multiple of 20 in the last two decades." "Millions of young Indians are dabbling in stocks for the first time as they remain stuck at home, with many of them trying their hands at trading shares to boost income amid pay cuts and job losses," wrote Nasrin Sultana. "There is a disconnect between booming markets and economic activity, Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das said on Monday, warning that the stretched valuations of financial assets pose a risk to financial stability." You can either administer a blood transfusion to the economy or bleed it to death. Can't do both.   

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