Wednesday, January 27, 2021

Not inequality of wealth, it is inequality of poverty.

"Recent high frequency indicators suggest that the recovery is getting stronger in its traction and soon the winter of our discontent will be made glorious summer," the Reserve Bank (RBI) wrote in its January bulletin quoting William Shakespeare. Growth will be consumption driven provided there is no further increase in coronavirus infection rate. "While Covid pandemic and lockdowns that came with it disrupted a lot of lives and even business, it may just have a silver lining. Indians ended up saving additional $200 billion during this time, a UBS report said." "Given the nature of savings (granular and broad based), we believe beneficiaries could be across consumption (discretionary and staples, autos) and financials (opportunities for retail lending)." "A 1% economic growth results in nearly 2% growth in income tax revenues," wrote former chief commissioner of income tax Hardayal Singh. Possibly because economic growth is not uniform and tends to benefit those earning higher incomes. "This is the finding of an analysis of income tax and gross domestic product (GDP) data of Indian states from 2012 to 2018," and economic growth also improves the Ease of Doing Business (EDB) rankings of states. This means, "One, states that focus on growth are quickly rewarded through higher tax revenues. Two, the tax department should not focus on negative things -- penalties, prosecution, surveys and other coercive methods to raise revenue." "India's top 100 billionaires have seen their fortunes increase by Rs 12,97,822 crore (Rs 12.98 trillion) since March last year when the Covid-19 pandemic hit the country and this amount is enough to give 13.8 crore (138 million) poorest Indians a cheque for Rs 94,045 each." The latest India supplement of the Oxfam report 'The Inequality Virus' said it would take an unskilled worker 10,000 years to make what businessman Mukesh Ambani made in an hour during the pandemic and three years to make what he made in a second." Lucas Chancel and Thomas Piketty "show the sharp rise of income, particularly of the top 1%", which they term "billionaire raj", wrote Christophe Jaffrelot & Kalayarasan A. "They present an overall U-shaped curve of inequality in the last 70 years -- declining inequality from 1950s to 1980s followed by a sharp rise thereafter. Also, they contest the hypothesis about the rise of a middle class in India. In their analysis, it is the top 10% who benefited the most as compared to the middle 40%." A massive gush of liquidity by central banks, including the RBI, all over the world has resulted in soaring asset prices, wrote an editorial in the Mint. "Wage compression by Indian companies, done to shore up profits, has widened the divide between the few who live off returns and the many who subsist on salaries." "However, imposing a wealth tax, as Piketty fans would like, is unlikely to work." "Over 5.95 crore (59.5 million) income tax returns (ITRs) for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2020 (2019-20) were filed by January 10, the Income Tax Department said." This is out of a total population of 1,300 million and includes businesses. The vast majority, 44.8 million, of individuals filed income less than Rs 5 million in the year. "India's per capita annual income in 2019-20 was Rs 1,26,968 according to provisional  estimates published on January 7." The Longitudinal Ageing Study in India (LASI) by the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare (MoHFW) puts the annual per capita income of the top 20% of households at less than Rs 100,000 and the bottom 20% of households at Rs 25,825 per year per capita. Just a handful is rich. For the rest, it is a question of who is poorer. Inequality of poverty.         

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