Monday, January 11, 2021

Why no atmanirbhar in finances?

"For most investors, equities are the only game in town precisely because the current Fed (US Federal Reserve) has pretty much said that far from taking the punch bowl away, it will pour as much of the hard stuff as it can keep markets partying," wrote Richard Cookson. Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) poured over Rs 1.53 trillion into Indian share markets in 2020 which closed at record highs yesterday. FPIs invested Rs 51.56 billion in the first week of January 2021. "On 18 December, the price to earnings (PE) ratio of the Nifty 50 stock market index reached an all time high of 37.84," wrote Vivek Kaul. "Last year, the Fed went all in by buying corporate bonds, there by cutting corporate borrowing spreads," wrote Cookson. "Flows into equity exchange-traded funds smashed records. So did issuance of investment grade and high-yield debt." "Junk bond issuers borrowed $432 billion in the US alone." The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has refused to sell bonds at higher yields. "The devolvement at four consecutive auctions led bond traders to conclude that RBI does not want the 10-year bond yield (or interest rate) to cross 6%," wrote Aparna Iyer. One reason for high share and bond prices is that the RBI has "flooded the financial system with money. The total liquidity support announced between 6 February and 30 September 2020 was Rs 11.1 trillion." Trying to force lending rates down to help government borrowing is one thing, but how do you control it from collapsing? "Alarm bells must have started ringing on Mint Street (RBI headquarters) overnight after lending rates dropped below RBI's reverse repo rate of 3.35%," wrote an editorial in the Mint. "With overnight rates going below even reverse-repo rates, neither the MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) nor RBI seem to have a handle on the market. This could be the final straw." "The continuing overhang of excess systemic liquidity, estimated at around Rs 8 trillion, has depressed interest rates in the short-term, but also threatens to ignite inflationary fires in the medium-to-long term." "The banking stability indicator has improved on all five parameters but as investors chase returns in the low interest-rate scenario, the disconnect between the real economy and the financial markets is getting worse, the central bank said in its Financial Stability Report (FSR) Monday." "Real interest rates on bank deposits in India are currently in negative territory," and this is fueling a bubble in asset prices. How do you undo the damage without a collapse of the market? "I think inflation is about to pick up sharply, especially in the US, a problem compounded by the falling dollar," wrote Cookson. If that happens, the Fed will have to increase interest rates and there may be an outflow of dollars as in August 2013, known as 'taper tantrum'. The RBI has been accumulating dollars for that eventuality. Foreigners are taking charge. If you do the same as the US don't blame the world if the economy turns turtle. Should have been atmanirbhar in finances as in manufacturing. Be consistent.       

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