Tuesday, January 12, 2021

How is the economy growing if people have less to spend?

"Belying many doomsday predictions, the Covid struck Indian economy has proven to be resilient," wrote Prof Ram Singh. "The economy is expected to grow at 10% in the next fiscal year to become one of the fastest-growing economies in the Asia-Pacific region." The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MOSPI) released "the First Advance Estimates (FAE) for the current financial year". It predicts, "For the full year of 2020-21 then, India's GDP is likely to be Rs 134.4 lakh crore (Rs 134.4 trillion) as against Rs 145.7 lakh crore in 2019-20." At Rs 55,609 the private final consumption expenditure (PFCE), which gauges consumer demand, "will fall below the 2017-18 level" and at Rs 37 trillion, gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) (or the investment demand in the economy) will be even below 2016-17 level. "According to an estimate we need an investment of Rs 500 lakh crore (Rs 500 trillion) over the next seven years." "Weak domestic demand, anemic export growth, and subdued private investments mean that three of India's growth engines are malfunctioning today," wrote Nikita Kwatra and Pramit Bhattacharya. "Government spending remains the last engine of hope for the economy," but "India's public debt-to-GDP ratio has jumped to 89% and would remain at similar levels till at least 2025," according to the IMF. The government needs to spend wisely. "A likely revival in the investment cycle on the back of strong growth in corporate profits will be well supported by capital inflows from the developed world," wrote Prof VA Nageswaran. "Under these circumstances, compared to the situation some three-four months ago, the risk now is that the government overdoes its fiscal stimulus for 2021-22 rather than under-provides it." "Many of us have faced health scares, income disruption, economic uncertainties, debt security default worries in this period," wrote Suresh Sadagopan, but senior citizens have been particularly hit because of low interest rate and high retail inflation, which is down to 4.59% in December from 6.93% in November, but real interest rate is still in negative territory, hitting savings collected over of a lifetime of labor. "About 75 million people above 60 in India suffer from some chronic disease, shows the first part (2017-18) of the world's largest study on the aged -- the Longitudinal Aging Study in India (LASI)" and 78% over the age of 60 years get no pension. Price of petrol in Delhi shot up to a record high of Rs 84.20 so that "central government's receipts from excise duty, the bulk of which comes from petrol, diesel, and crude oil, saw a sharp 40% year-on-year jump in the first seven months of this fiscal year". When the government and the RBI conspire to extort as much as possible from the people there is no avenue of escape. People try to protect what little they have by buying gold. They say the economy is growing. Strange.              

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