Wednesday, January 06, 2021

Of, by and for the people cannot be transplanted on India.

Prof Arvind Panagariya makes four recommendations for the Union Budget to be presented by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on 1 February 2021. "One, in the next six months, the government must speedily clear the payments it owes in the form of pending tax refunds, overdue GST revenue to states and payments for goods and services received from private companies." That will need enormous revenues. "If the gross domestic product (GDP) for this year contracts by 10% over last year, the government will lose an estimated Rs 5 trillion (or $60 billion) in potential tax income," wrote Prof Amir Ullah Khan. "An estimated 190 million Indians sleep hungry on most days." Hungry children or private companies? Tough choice. "Second, the government must recapitalise in advance public sector banks (PSBs) on a sizable scale." The Reserve Bank (RBI) has said that "banks will need additional capital of up to one and a half percentage points of risk weighted assets". "Given that total bank loans are around Rs 104 lakh crore, the capital requirement would be Rs 1 lakh crore (Rs 1 trillion)." To generate revenue, "Third, there is now little excuse for foot dragging of a large number of public sector enterprises (PSEs)." Prime Minister Narendra Modi should bypass bureaucratic hurdles and set up a disinvestment ministry like former PM Vajpayee did. But, it is not just bureaucrats. There are ministers who would see a reduction in portfolio without PSEs. In addition to Modi, there are 21 cabinet ministers, 9 minsters of state with independent charge, 6 of whom are also ministers of state under cabinet ministers, and 23 other ministers of state, making 53 in all. If petroleum, natural gas and steel are privatized Mr Dharmender Pradhan will have nothing to do, as will Mr DV Sadanand Gowda if chemicals and fertilizers are sold off. In the US, a $21 trillion economy in 2019 according to the World Bank, the President appoints 15 Secretaries in the cabinet and 7 officials of cabinet rank, making 22 in all. There are an additional 20 heads of various departments. "Finally, in the Budget, the government must commit to a program of phased tariff reductions such that average tariff comes down to 10% from its current level of 14% by 2024." The outgoing US Ambassador to India Kenneth Juster said that the two sides could not finalise even a "small trade package" because of "growing restrictions on market access for some US goods and services, increasing tariffs, new limitations on free flow of data and 'less than predictable regulatory environment for investors'." The US is one of very few countries with which we have a positive trade balance, which was $28.8 billion in 2019. Modi believes that all Indians cheat on taxes which led to demonetization of high value banknotes in 2016. The government is constantly seeking to 'widen the tax base', when the vast majority of Indians earn less than the threshold for income tax, wrote Praveen Chakravarty. Panagariya has been out of India too long. He has probably ingested the "of the people, by the people, for the people" opium. In India, it is for the government, by the police, up the people.

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