Friday, January 15, 2021

Is it a good idea to pour oil on fire of inflation?

"The rising trend in commodity prices calls for greater efficiency in inflation management, and makes an achieved real growth more important than ever, so that the additional liquidity created to support growth does not end up merely raising the prices of a static supply of goods and services. Ironically, the spurt in global commodity prices comes just when inflation finally seems to be coming down in India, consumer price increase now being 4.59%," wrote an editorial in the Economic Times.  Inflation in India is down because "overall food inflation has come down sharply from more than 9% in November to 3.4% in December, cereal inflation is now less than 1% on an year-on-year basis" and vegetable inflation in December was at -10%, wrote Prof Himanshu. "World food prices rose for a sixth month running in November, hitting almost a six-year high with the index posting its biggest monthly increase since July 2012," the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) said. Global inflation is about to pick up soon and strongly, wrote Richard Cookson and, "As has been the case for many years, global inflation has 'Made in Asia' stamped all over it." Retail inflation in India fell to 4.59% in December 2020 from 6.93% in November. Petrol and diesel prices have been rising to record levels almost on a daily basis and as transport costs rise so will prices of all goods. "According to data released by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), currency in circulation grew by Rs 5,01,405 crore (Rs 5.01405 trillion) between January 1, 2019 and January 1, 2020." "Currency in circulation in 2020 grew by 13.2% to Rs 27.7 lakh crore as on Jan 1, 2021, from March 31, a year ago, according to recent data released by Reserve Bank of India," reported Bloomberg Quint. The Federal Reserve in the US has been pouring money into markets and this excess liquidity, along with a weaker dollar will cause inflation in the US. "The ECB's (European Central Bank) survey of professional forecasters in the final quarter of last year assigned more than 70% probability that inflation remains at or below the ECB's near 2% target over the next 5 years -- even though it also ascribed only a 3% chance of deflation persisting over that timeline," reported Reuters. "But many in financial markets remain convinced that rising global inflation will yet be a legacy of this crisis -- even if it largely relies on the United States for evidence and is the flipside of overwhelmingly bearish views on the US dollar." No wonder foreign investors are avoiding Indian bonds. Foreign investors hold $475 billion of Chinese bonds, $138 billion in Korea bonds, $55 billion in Malaysian bonds and just $41 billion in Indian bonds, wrote Aparna Iyer. They sold $13.7 billion of Indian paper in 2020 even as they bought Rs 1.4 trillion of Indian shares. They probably expect inflation to rise further with consequent increase in bond yields. The fire of inflation may just be simmering. Why is the government pouring oil on it? 

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