Thursday, January 07, 2021

It is the Chinese virus, after all.

 "An international panel of scientists and social scientists, convened by the Wellcome Trust, recently constructed four pandemic scenarios," wrote Erik Berglof. "Not even in the most optimistic of the four scenarios -- characterized by a relatively stable virus, effective vaccines, and improved antiviral therapies -- will SARS-CoV-2 be eradicated in all five settings within five years, though community transmission could be eliminated within certain boundaries." "Already, the pandemic is fueling inequality both among and within countries. Wealth has amounted to the most potent protection from covid-19, as it facilitates social distancing and all but guarantees quality health care." "In the year leading up to the covid-19 crisis, 84% of stock market wealth in the US was held by 10% of shareholders (and 51% by the top 1%) whereas the bottom 50% held barely any stock at all," wrote Prof Nouriel Roubini. In India, stock markets have been hitting record highs almost everyday despite the pandemic. New investors are piling into stocks because they are working from home and most have seen a drop in earnings. "Industry data showed that a million new dematerialised or demat accounts  were opened for a fifth straight month in October, taking the total tally to 47.6 million." "And the action is shifting from metros to tier II and III cities, which is a positive sign, say brokerage firms. More demat accounts in non-metros reflect deeper penetration of equity markets." This means a large number of people will lose money when the market tanks. "In the seven-month period between April and October, when businesses were shut and jobs were lost," "the top 50 companies in India's stock market increased their value by $200 billion combined," wrote Praveen Chakravarty. "Excesses of financialization and financial markets are a real threat to social stability and harmony, not just in India but in many other countries such as the United States and United Kingdom." "Globally, private and public debt has risen from 320% of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2019 to a staggering 365% of GDP at the end of 2020," wrote Roubini." "Over time, the world will be firmly divided between two competing systems -- one controlled by the US and Europe, and a few democratic emerging markets, the other controlled by China, which by then will dominate its strategic allies (Russia, Iran, and North Korea) and a wide range of dependent emerging markets and developing economies." India was given a bloody nose by China, wrote Prof Brahma Chellaney. "In the previous six years, Prime Minister Narendra Modi had met with Chinese President Xi Jinping 18 times, in the hope of fostering friendlier relations (and weakening the China-Pakistan axis)." But China occupied Indian territory in Ladakh, Having sickened the world China will gain. Rest will suffer. Or fight.   

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