Tuesday, January 05, 2021

Short term gain for long term pain?

In the annual game of speculation about the Budget, SN Sharma advises the Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman to analyse what previous finance ministers did in times of crisis. The natural tendency is to ask citizens to sacrifice by paying higher taxes. Already a surcharge ranging from 10% to 37% is levied on those earning from above Rs 5 million to Rs 100 million. People over the age of 60 years have to pay tax on income above Rs 300,000, instead of Rs 250,000 for those younger than 60 years of age, but receive no pension or healthcare guaranteed for all elected politicians for life. While most are arguing for increases in personal and corporate tax rates, economist Pronab Sen feels that "The economy itself is the patient today. The budget can't tap into this economy to save the economy." The government must increase expenditure on investment in infrastructure and development, wrote Prof Amir Ullah Khan. "A one percent slowdown in growth rate in India typically results in a 0.5% decrease in employment potential." "An estimated 190 million Indians sleep hungry on most days." Businesses have to comply with too many regulations. To manufacture cosmetics, "As I went through the Gazette Notification, I was struck by what can only be called an Orwellian obsession with details, with rules for manufacturing space and laboratories, for the maintenance of equipment, etc," wrote Prof VA Nageswaran. "The Indian regulatory landscape has 1,536 Acts, more than 69,233 compliances and 6,618 regulatory filings across the Center and states," wrote Remya Nair. The US has only 3 pages of regulations on cosmetics and "About 97% of the toiletries, perfumes and cosmetic products that have commercialization authorized in Brazil are exempt from registration". Regulations are to trap people into breaking the law. Although the "IHS Markit's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose from 56.3 in November to 56.4 in December" there is concern about rising input prices. While inflation eased in most countries due to the pandemic it remained higher than the upper limit of 6% for India. As the global economy begins to grow again prices of commodities are rising which can only add to inflationary pressures. The Nomura Business Resumption Index for India reached its highest level of 94.5 for the week ending 3 January but labor force participation rate (LFPR) fell to 40.3% from 40.9% in December. The Reserve Bank has flooded the market with cash. "The size of the India's central bank's balance sheet has increased by Rs 14.2 trillion since December 2019 -- from Rs 42.6 to Rs 56.8 trillion," wrote Niranjan Rajadhyaksha. That is causing inflation. With elections coming up in 4 large states in April-May what will Sitharaman do? Increase handouts or increase taxes? Inflation or unemployment? Conundrum. 

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