Can a fig leaf hide the GDP?

"India will see a sharp V-shaped recovery in the third and fourth quarter of the current fiscal, but FY21 GDP growth would ultimately be in negative territory as the coronavirus lodkdown led to serious demand and supply dislocations, 15th Finance Commission Chairman NK Singh said on Monday." What he probably means is that, though the shape of recovery will resemble the letter 'V', the upstroke will be much smaller than the downstroke. Trouble is, no one can tell because the new method of calculating our gross domestic product (GDP) is not understood. Calculation of GDP is updated at regular intervals by changing the base year to account for changing patterns of production and growth of the economy, but the new calculations have completely changed growth rates of the last two decades. "The GDP series suggests that India's economic boom in the 2005-11 period continued at a nearly identical pace in the 2012-18 period at just above 7%. Almost all other indicators of economic activity suggested otherwise," wrote Pramit Bhattacharya and Nikita Kwatra. Bank credit growth fell from 15% per year in the period before 2011 to 4% in the period after, projects under implementation slowed down, "wage bill of factories declined sharply" and "The latest National Sample Survey (NSS) consumption report shows rural consumption actually declined at an annual pace of 1.5% in the post-2011 phase. The ministry buried the consumption report, citing dissonance with GDP growth figures." Two independent members of the National Statistical Commission resigned because the government suppressed their report on employment. All government figures are suspect. "Economists, including State Bank of India's Soumya Kanti Ghosh, aren't buying the Statistics Department's methodology for calculating consumer price inflation numbers for April and May, which take into account prices of services that became immaterial during the lockdown that began March 25," wrote Anirban Nag. Most services, except healthcare, were closed. Even types of goods purchased by households changed, wrote Suneera Tandon and Shuchi Bansal. Sales of cleaning items, such as sanitizers and household disinfectants, increased. Sales of dishwashers jumped because domestic maids were not allowed in. "Only 14.3% of households in India own a washing machine. Penetration of refrigerators in the country stands at 34.1%." Where the government leads businesses follow. Despite an order by the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) an analysis of "the response of 50 companies that constitute the Nifty50 stock index" by the Mint showed that "most have had only sketchy information to reveal as part of their last quarter reports for 2019-20, the last such on public record". No wonder, "Credit rating agencies have approached financial market regulators for withdrawing ratings to more than 10,000 companies that are refusing to share information." The government may be concealing community spread of the coronavirus and even pressuring doctors to write different causes on death certificates but how long will it conceal a bankrupt economy? The king may have dressed in a suit worth Rs 1 million but the economy is broke. The fig leaf is about to fall off.