Sunday, July 19, 2020

Are we going to change? Or carry on as before?

"The next 10 years is going to be India's 'golden moment' in key sectors like technology, pharmaceutical, e-commerce and manufacturing, said a top venture capitalist from Silicon Valley, pointing at the USD 20 billion foreign direct investment in the country amidst the coronavirus outbreak."  "He noted that the current President Donald Trump-led administration's anti-China sentiment is also helping India bag big investment." "Conflict between China and India has made it urgently necessary for the US to deepen its economic integration with the latter country, through increased trade and investment," wrote Noah Smith. "In addition to making both countries money and aligning the interests of the two nations even further, making India a richer, more advanced and more powerful country would strengthen it as bulwark against Chinese domination of Asia." "For years the United States and its allies have tried to persuade India to become a closer military and economic partner in confronting China's ambitions, painting it as a chance for the world's largest democracy to counterbalance the world's largest autocracy," wrote Maria Abi Habib. One big obstacle is that India harbors a thriving fifth column of communists who side with China against their own nation. We signed a nuclear accord with the US in 2005, but the then government was dependent for its majority in the Lok Sabha on the Communist Party (CPM) which was adamant in its opposition to the deal. For decades the communists have openly declared their allegiance to China, even when India is under attack from that barbaric nation. Chinese spies help to provide weapons to the extreme communist group, known as Naxals, who are waging an armed conflict against the state. Although this government has an absolute majority in parliament, India is still suspicious about foreign investment and places restrictions on foreign investors. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has reverted to a policy of import substitution under the moniker of 'atmanirbharta', which means 'self reliance'. "The overall experience so far has been that industries shielded from global competition by high tariff walls -- or even non-tariff barriers -- have little incentive to keep costs down and quality high, as companies based in India have a large captive market within the country," wrote an editorial in the Mint. "Just before the 1991-economic reforms, the highest tariff rate was 355%, the simple average of tariffs for 113% and the average weighted by imports was 87%. India's share of global trade fell from 2% at the time of independence to 0.5% in 1990," wrote Kelkar, Mashelkar and Rajadhyaksha. To help US businesses understand our tariff structure, US Embassies wrote, "Given this large disparity between bound and applied rates, US exporters face tremendous uncertainty because India has considerable flexibility to change tariff rates at any time." The US is confused. China just takes what it wants. Will we befriend the US? Or carry on as before? 

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