Thursday, July 02, 2020

A sick economy is vulnerable. Like people are.

"The Indian economy gathered pace in June with goods movement rebounding close to pre-lockdown levels and goods and services tax (GST) collections rising sharply from May." Electricity consumption rose and bank credit rose Rs 320.22 billion and subsidy payments under the MGNREGA scheme fell, "suggesting better industrial demand for labor". GST collection in June rose to Rs 909.17 billion, "9% lower than the same month last year", but much higher than Rs 620.09 billion in May and Rs 322.94 billion in April of this year. Higher GST collections reflect increase in consumer spending, perhaps catching up on pent up demand due to the 3-week lockdown, which began on 25 March. This is supported by "The headline seasonally adjusted IHS Markit India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) stood at 47.2 in June, up from 30.8 in May." "In April, the index had slipped into contraction mode, after remaining in growth territory for 32 consecutive months." Any figure below 50 indicates contraction. "Although many parts of the economy continue to feel the pain inflicted by measures to stem the pandemic, the latest economic data indicate the worst is over and India is on the road to a slow recovery." An analysis of consumer demand in June by the Economic Times, shows that demand for fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) was good, demand for retail market, smartphones, digital payments, power and petroleum products were average, while demand for ride hailing services, realty and hospitality sectors were poor. It is only natural that sectors where human contact is necessary, such as ride hailing and hospitality, as well as realty, where customers would want to inspect properties before buying, would come take time to recover. However, "All-India housing prices index rose by 3.9 percent during the fourth quarter of 2019-20 (Jan-Mar 2020) compared to the year ago period, but contracted 0.2 percent compared to the previous quarter, said the RBI (Reserve Bank) on Tuesday." Of the eight core sectors with 40.27% weight in the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), only fertilizer production showed a growth of 7.5% in May, while other sectors contracted at a lesser pace than in April. "The gradual recovery was seen for instance in Maruti Suzuki India Ltd which sold 18,539 vehicles in May after failing to sell a single unit in the preceding month." "Data issued separately by the Controller General of Accounts (CGA) on Tuesday showed the fiscal deficit breached 58.6% in the first two months of FY21 (April and May 2020) against 52% in the same period a year ago." However, "India still has a long way to go," argued an editorial in the Mint. The lockdown severely exacerbated the  slowdown, which started way back in 2016, but the factors that caused it went unresolved. Just as people with longstanding illnesses are more likely to die of the coronavirus so it is with economies. Our economy was already sick.   

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