Monday, July 20, 2020

They maybe of Indian origin, but we must be nice to them.

"IBM has committed to increase investments in India, Arvind Krishna CEO of IBM, informed Prime Minister Narendra Modi over a video conference call on Monday." "IBM has a large India presence with over 100,000 employees working for its global operations as well as local market. In fiscal year 2019, IBM reported revenues of $3.8 billion in the country." Indian companies are discarding Chinese  companies which creates opportunities for those from other countries. "India electrical equipment and electronics industry has begun mass cancellation of orders on Chinese companies in the last few days and are scouting for newer destinations for raw material sourcing." Airtel signed a deal with Nokia for $1 billion to prepare for 5G service. The Indian economy contracted by 5% in 1979, wrote Bhattacharya and Kwatra. "India saw an unprecedented growth surge for more than three decades since that historic contraction." "For perspective, between 1980 and 2010, India's per capita income went up more than three times to Rs 86,560 (at 2019-20 prices). The Indian economy will contract by 4.5% this year, said the IMF. We will need strong growth to create millions of new jobs. " The lockdown due to the coronavirus and the resulting flight of migrant labor "have bolstered the case for more automation in India factories -- a significant change as Indian business has always preferred cheap labor to expensive machines," wrote Gautam Das. "On the software side, IBM cited a three to four times increase in the number of requests from mid to large companies to automate processes." We need new investments. "New project announcements in India plunged to a 16-year low in the just-ended June quarter, latest data from project tracking database of the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) shows," wrote Surbhi Bhatia. Companies will need to borrow money from banks to start new projects. The Reserve Bank (RBI) initially allowed borrowers to delay repaying their loans by 3 months, and then extended it for a further 3 months to the end of August, which means borrowers will now have to pay for the previous 6 months together with accumulated interest. "If one-twentieth of the loans which are likely to be under moratorium as of 31 August are defaulted on, the overall quantum of bad loans in the Indian banking system would be close to Rs 12 trillion. If one-fifth of them default once the moratorium is lifted, the quantum of bad loans would touch a dizzying Rs 20 trillion, more than double the current level," wrote Vivek Kaul. Most bad loans resulted from excessive borrowing before the financial crisis of 2008, which Prof Raghuram Rajan tried to clean up during his tenure as governor of the RBI, The present administration did not allow him to complete his mission. So, no money for Indian companies. Will US companies with CEOs of Indian origin rescue us? Only if we are nice to them.      

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