Thursday, July 09, 2020

Who knew poor migrants are wealth creators?

"Migration is India's largest and most successful avenue -- though not an official policy -- of reducing poverty," wrote Prof Neeraj Kaushal. From 2001 to 2011, the number of people migrating for work rose from 30 million to 41 million. It has probably risen to 56 million by 2020, benefiting 224 million family members back in their villages. Migration creates more wealth than the government's flagship MGNREGA scheme, which provides 100 days employment to the rural poor and will help 37 million families in 2020-21. Lack of jobs has forced engineers to work under MGNREGA in Madhya Pradesh (MP). Migrant workers improve productivity in wealthier states while transferring some of the wealth to the home states of migrants, but policymakers "seem to think migration is a tragedy. One of MGNREGA's aims is to reduce migration". The sudden lockdown forced millions of migrant workers to walk back to their villages and they are now seeking employment under MGNREGA. One reason for official indifference maybe that many of the migrants, unable to afford rents in cities, tend to live in slums, often illegally occupying expensive government land. Illegal extension of buildings by rent-seeking landlords means that over 90% of buildings in Delhi and surrounding suburbs would be flattened by a strong earthquake. But, a more plausible reason maybe that "60% of migrants and 83% of long distance migrants had not voted in the last election" and "Hence no political parties are prominent in championing their cause." If millions of people are forced out of jobs they have no money to spend resulting in a fall in goods and services tax (GST) collections which means the government has to borrow to finance support schemes like MGNREGA, raising the fiscal deficit to uncomfortable levels. The government has already signaled its intention of increasing borrowing by over 50% to Rs 12 trillion this financial year. One consequence of government poverty is that taxes are soaring in India, sucking money out of consumers, while the Chancellor of the Exchequer in Britain Rishi Sunak has just announced a cut in VAT from 20% to 5% for the next 6 months, a reduction on stamp duty on real estate and a 50% discount on meals in restaurants up to a maximum of 10 pounds  per head. Since only 4.5% of households own a 4-wheel vehicle the government sees no political cost in hitting their pockets. A study has found that over 50% of affluent households have been profoundly affected by the coronavirus and so might curtail spending once the pent up demand during lockdown is satisfied. A Reuters poll found that most economist predict a fall in consumer inflation rate in June as a start in production increases supply. The government just needs to create the environment for winning companies to emerge in India, and then "back them to the hilt", thinks R Jagannathan. "The government holds the lock but not the keys to Atmanirbhar Bharat (self-reliant India)." Perhaps, the government is the lock.

1 comment:

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