Sunday, July 26, 2020

The piggy bank protects against foreigners.

"Consumer and services sectors including banking, financial services and insurance (BFSI), fast moving consumer goods (FMCG), information technology (IT) and pharmaceuticals have dominated initial trends in the June quarter results season." "Analysts expect a revival in the second half of the fiscal." "The IHS Markit Services PMI in June rose to 33.7 from 12.6 in May, indicating a pick-up from the previous month, although any reading below 50 on this survey based index shows contraction." "The services sector accounts for about 55% of the gross value added growth, two-thirds of total foreign direct investment inflows into India and about 38% of India's exports." Airlines are to lay off staff in an effort to reduce losses. "Indian banks may need to raise $20-50 billion capital in the next two years as bad loans and credit costs rise due to the Covid-19 induced slowdown in the economy, brokerages and ratings agencies believe." "A fiscal stimulus is essentially a scenario where the government cuts taxes or increases spending in trying to revive the economy," wrote Vivek Kaul. "In the process. consumer demand and economic growth can be revived. Without consumer demand, who do businesses produce for?" Where will all the money come from when the government is predicting a rise in borrowing to Rs 12 trillion this fiscal? Simple, wrote Christophe Jaffrelot, just use India's foreign exchange reserves which have reached a record $517.637 billion. "The recent forex reserves surge was a result of two things. A spike in foreign institutional investments and savings in India's import bill.""Economists have theorised that holding high forex reserves are unnecessary. In fact not using them for mega-projects (like financing infrastructure projects) are lost opportunities..." That is not possible, wrote Ravi Saraogi. "A big fallacy of this proposal is that it ignores the fact that against every dollar of forex reserves shown by RBI (Reserve Bank of India) on the asset side, an equivalent rupee amount has already been created on the liability side. This is because whenever RBI acquires foreign currency, it pays for it using the Indian rupee." Buying dollars creates more rupees in the system and the RBI can also print more currency. Former governor of RBI Prof Raghuram Rajan cautioned against financing government borrowing by the RBI buying government bonds. Former central banker Prof Viral Acharya also cautioned against the RBI "monetizing the government's budget deficit, citing risks to inflation and external sector stability". reported Bloomberg. "Data from the central bank show India's external debt rose to $558.5 billion as of March 2020 from $474 billion five years ago." All the more reason not to break the piggy bank. But, the temptation!   

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