Wednesday, July 08, 2020

Actually, it is a pandemic of poverty.

The coronavirus outbreak may seem a great equalizer with more affluent countries worse affected than poorer ones, but "upon closer inspection, it becomes evident how the most vulnerable sections of society are usually the most affected in times of crisis," wrote Prof Amit Kapoor and Chirag Yadav.  "Inequality is not simply a tool that creates differential impact across society during pandemics and further exacerbates the gap. Quite possibly, it is also the reason behind the outbreak of the disease itself." How? "Initially, sustained population growth results in a rise in population density, which pushes the basic reproduction number of all diseases upwards. At the same time, overpopulation leads to excess supply of labor, which pushes wages downwards." Bihar has the highest fertility rate in India, and is the only state whose fertility rate is above 3, wrote Rukmini S. Only the Hindi speaking states of Bihar, Uttar Pradesh (UP), Madhya Pradesh (MP), Jharkhand, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh have rates higher than the total fertility rate (TFR) of 2.2 for India. Delhi and West Bengal have the lowest rate, at 1.5. Not surprising that Bihar is the poorest state in India, with the lowest per capita GDP, followed by UP. Yet, until 24 June, Bihar was not in the top 10 states with the highest number of cases of coronavirus. While the poor are vulnerable to a pandemic because of overcrowding and poor nutrition, the rich spread the disease globally by traveling and buying expensive goods from abroad, wrote Kapoor and Yadav. "A delay of several weeks in enforcing mandatory quarantine for all international travelers coming to the country at the first point of entry may have accelerated the coronavirus outbreak in India and is likely to cause a greater public health crisis." In late March, after the country went into a strictest lockdown, the government advised states "to immediately strengthen surveillance of international travelers who entered India between January 18 and March 23", "given that many amongst the persons who have tested positive so far in India have a history of international travel". As the pandemic shuts down schools, education for poor children becomes difficult because they lack laptops or access to internet and many drop out to support their families by working. When vaccines are available rich nations buy up the first supplies. Lack of employment, healthcare and education means poverty is extended well into the future. So what do Kapoor and Yadav recommend? Cash transfers to the poor, which India is doing already. This has to be temporary because the government is on track to borrow in excess of Rs 12 trillion this financial year. The solution is obvious. If the poor reduce their birthrate they will reduce the pool of labor and that will push up wages. Law of supply and demand. But Kapoor and Yadav are scared to advocate family planning advice for the poor because they will be accused of eugenics, even though the fertility rate in the wealthy state of Maharashtra is much lower than in the poorest state of Bihar. Political correctness does not help the poor. By providing cheap labor it helps the rich. Inequality is not going anywhere.

1 comment:

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