Thursday, July 16, 2020

Does Iran have the time it needs?

"Under a 25-year pact, China will invest $400 billion in Iran's petroleum sector as well as its core infrastructure -- banking, telecom, ports, airports, high speed railways, metro and free trade zones," wrote former Indian Ambassador Navtej Sarna. Bandar-e-Jask is a port on the Gulf of Oman with free access to the Indian Ocean, thus avoiding the narrow point of the Strait of Hormuz between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, which is the main point of exit for most of Iran's exports, including oil. Iran has not forgotten operation Praying Mantis in 1988 when US warships struck Iranian targets in retaliation for laying mines in the Persian Gulf, damaging a US frigate. "The Jask terminal will have an export capacity of 1 million bpd with an initial 20 million barrels of crude storage capacity." Iran is probably calculating that once Jask is operational it can create obstructions for its arch enemy Saudi Arabia, while the Chinese naval base at Jask will protect it from US attacks. The Supreme Leader supports China while some hardliners, led by former president Ahmadinajad, are against it because of China's repression of Uyghur Muslims. However, recent mysterious explosions in Iran show that it is vulnerable to other forms of attacks. "The first enigmatic hit happened on June 26 at a known liquid fuel production center that makes ballistic missiles in Khojir, near Parchin, southeast of the capital." On 30 June, 19 people died in an explosion at a medical center in Tehran and then, "Two days later, on July 2 the notorious Natanz uranium enrichment plant -- which became active in 2018 as Iran's principal place to develop centrifuges required to produce uranium and other nuclear weapons were in-development -- was struck by a mammoth blast, as confirmed by the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI)." Mysterious attacks continue. "At least seven boats have caught fire at a shipyard in the port of Bushehr in southern Iran, state media reported." A group calling itself Homeland Cheetahs have claimed responsibility. "The group said it was composed of dissidents within Iran's military and security forces and that they had been behind numerous attacks that the Iranian authorities have so far concealed from the public." Iran threatened to retaliate against any country that carries out cyber attacks against its nuclear sites, reported Reuters. A Kuwaiti newspaper Al-Jareeda reported that two explosions were caused by cyber attacks by Israel in retaliation for Iran's attempt to hack into Israel's water infrastructure to release chlorine into its water supply. The same newspaper said that Israeli stealth fighter jets bombed Iran's missile storage facility at Parchin. The Obama White House denied threatening to shoot down Israeli jets trying to bomb Iran. President Trump is no Obama. Iran's main problem maybe its currency, the rial, which is trading at 215,500 to the US dollar in the black market against its official exchange rate of 42,000 rials to the dollar, showing that its people have lost all confidence in the economy, and indirectly in the government. If the Iranian regime falls it will be huge. China's fall will be spectacular. Worth waiting for.

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