Sunday, July 05, 2020

Should we celebrate an undead economy?

"The central government raised the excise duty on diesel and petrol in March and May and increased the road cess to Rs 8 per liter," wrote SA Aiyar. Petrol costs over Rs 80 per liter in Delhi. "This price rise comes even as the Indian crude basket is seeing low prices. Priced at $71 per barrel at the start of FY 2019-20, it stood at only $40.83 per barrel as of June 28, 2020 -- a drop of more than 42%." The rupee has also strengthened against the dollar so the cost to oil companies is less than before. "Indian petrol at Rs 80/liter is still far cheaper than Europe and Japan, though more expensive than in low-taxed USA." The old canard. Taxpayers of Europe and Japan enjoy social benefits for the taxes they pay while taxpayers in India get nothing.  "For breathable air we should raise fuel taxes to curb consumption and incentivise a switch to electric two-wheelers, and eventually electric cars." After partial lifting of the lockdown cars and buses are running in Delhi but pollution levels are still down to moderate levels. During the lockdown when traffic came to almost a standstill pollution levels in Delhi were still at unhealthy levels. Perhaps, Aiyar should ascertain his facts before sounding off. As the nation gradually emerges from the lockdown, "Economists and corporate honchos are on the same page: the panacea for the growth problem is likely to come from Bharat (rural India) as India limps back to normalcy," wrote Shantanu Nandan Sharma. "The very fact that tractor sales have bucked the auto slump -- in May, tractor sales in the domestic market registered a decent 4% growth year-on-year -- indicates the rural economy may be in better health than the urban one." "There is one potential dampener, though. And that has to do with diesel prices," wrote Harish Damodaran. The price of diesel has gone up by Rs 11 per liter which affects paddy, the most widely grown kharif (summer) crop. Paddy requires a minimum of four ploughings which requires tractor use. The first two ploughings need 3 liters of diesel per acre, the next two need 5 liters per acre, followed by 'planking' which needs another 3 liters, for a total of at least 19 liters of diesel per acre. Harvesting needs another 7-8 liters per acre. The price of diesel is definitely going to hurt farmers. Domestic airlines need $3-3.5 billion if they are to survive. The US government gave $25 billion to US airlines to pay their staff till October. In India, instead of help, jet fuel prices were hiked by a shocking 48% in June, followed by another 7.5% increase a few days back. A grand total of 10.89 million tourists visited India in 2019, while more than 65 million people visited New York city in 2018. Fuel is the lifeblood of the economy. If it is sucked out, the economy becomes undead.

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