Tuesday, January 25, 2011

With the world's two greatest economists, that is our revered Prime Minister and the Chairman of the Planning Commission, Mr. Montek Singh Ahluwalia, managing the country economics can never be far from the news. The Reserve Bank has just raised interest rates by 0.25% which takes the repo rate to 6.5% and the reverse repo rate to 5.5%. The bank is predicting growth in GDP of 8.5% this fiscal and inflation rate of 7% which is much higher than the modest target of 5.5%. At the same time the RBI is lending over Rs 1 trillion to banks daily as liquidity is so tight that banks have no money to lend. The geniuses who run India want us to grow as fast as China without having any idea on how to control inflation which rises in tandem with growth. This kind of growth makes rich richer while killing the poor with high prices and seems suicidal.China has surplus of over $ 2 trillion which may be used to buy food from abroad or provide subsidies to reduce inflation whereas our government has a total debt of $ 2 trillion, 89% of which is domestic borrowing. The dire condition of the economy is shown by fall in Foreign Direct Investment, FDI in 2010. While FDI in developing countries rose 10% last year India's share fell by 31.5% in absolute numbers. FDI money is usually long term investment by foreign companies and therefore stable as opposed to Foreign Institutional Investment which is hot money invested in shares and bonds which flees in times of trouble. So why are the world's two greatest economists pursuing lemmings policies? To make the naked aam aadmi grateful by distributing cheap low grade food. How else to win elections!

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