Wednesday, January 19, 2011

Even as the US rolls out the red carpet for Hu Jintao Indians are a worried lot but I think that there is nothing to worry about because China thinks that the US is an ebbing impotent power to be pushed around while promising cooperation on everything. China will never respect intellectual property rights as it uses industrial espionage as long term strategy. China will never open its markets fully to US products. Instead it is reducing exports of rare earths by 30% to force foreign companies to manufacture in China in partnership with local companies so that they can steal industrial know how. On North Korea it will advise restraint because protecting the South keeps the US busy. On human rights, Burma and Tibet it will claim sovereignty. On currency it will accuse the US of trying to devalue the dollar through quantitative easing while on climate it will claim to be a developing country. However the US still has one weapon and that is trade. China is still dependent on exports and the US is still its largest markets. The US should tell Hu bluntly that just as China claims the right to set the value of the yuan vis a vis the dollar the US has the right to do the same for all Chinese goods imported into the US. The US could set a rate of, say, 3 yuans to the dollar which would double the cost of Chinese goods, boost US manufacturing and increase employment. Of course it will cause inflation to jump and retailers like Walmart will howl but the pain will be short term and the gain will be immense. Uncivilised barbarians like the Chinese respect only power and see politeness as a weakness. Power, after all, comes from the barrel of a gun.

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