Tuesday, January 04, 2011

With the start of 2011 much is being written about the present growth rate of India's economy and its prospects going forward. Writers, including economists and business leaders, choose to focus solely on the consumer driven growth in manufacturing and services without saying anything about fiscal deficit, current account deficit, growing government debt and external factors such as the rise in commodity prices including oil and food. Every forecast is based on the great middle class said to number 300 million and the rise in spending power due to rising salaries. Certainly there is evidence of a consumer spending boom but is it really by those who are in productive employment? Since exact figures are not available in India we can guess that 20-30 million are in high salaried jobs. Another 20 or so million are criminal politicians and useless parasitic civil servants whose incomes are from theft and crime. Then there are the land speculators who have successfully pushed up property prices to absurd levels resulting in a knock on rise in rents which is also an unproductive means of income. The total of these 3 groups comes to around 100 million and if we add in the children we may reach close to 300 million. There has definitely been a rise is sales of durable goods but that is purely because of a drop in prices. Twenty years ago a 21" color tv cost Rs. 36000, today a 26" flat screen LCD tv costs Rs. 22000. A VCR cost Rs. 40000, today a DVD costs Rs. 4000. People who have to survive on real incomes are finding it increasingly impossible due to inflation. Can growth continue indefinitely if based on unproductive wealth?

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