Friday, March 26, 2010

Mr. Arun Kumar, Professor of Economics at Jawaharlal University feels that the black economy in India is around 50% of the GDP amounting to around $500 billion. Black money is generated by fake products, smuggling, pirated goods, gambling, prostitution, bribery and other underhand activities. If all the black money was to be declared the government could collect Rs. 7500 billion in taxes. These are all criminal activities and must be carried out surreptitiously limiting their scope. Perhaps the main generators of black money are small businesses, neighborhood shops and property transactions. The government has tried to bring shops and small businesses into the tax net by offering to exonerate them if they paid nominal taxes of Rs. 1500 per year but no one has done so this far. The reason is the total mistrust of government officials. These people believe, perhaps rightly, that once they enter the government trap they will become victims of arbitrary demands for taxes and will end up paying bribes for life. Because of exorbitant stamp and registration charges people usually show half the sale value of properties. Property dealers collect 2% from both buyers and sellers. Deals in excess of Rs. 100 million are common netting a dealer Rs. 4 million in fees. All this is collected in cash so no dealer ever pays tax. One dealer has installed a note counting machine,as found in banks, to count the sheer volume of notes. A lot of this money goes to politicians as payoff which makes them immune to prosecution. Thus the Indian economy is built on the mother of all bubbles and when this bursts the crash will resound for years to come.

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