Wednesday, January 10, 2024

The price of free food.

According to the National Statistical Office (NSO), "India's real GDP growth is estimated at 7.3%, compared to 7.2% a year ago," and "The outlook by the NSO aligns with the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) adjustment of growth forecast, upgrading it to 7% from the earlier estimate of 6.5%." FE. "While agriculture sector growth slowed markedly to 1.8% from the 4.0% last fiscal," "manufacturing and construction have emerged as important drivers." "Private consumption growing at 4.4%, has trailed overall GDP growth," but "Share of fixed investment in GDP rose to a decadal high of 34.9% this fiscal," because "In the first eight months of this fiscal, central government investments grew 31% and those of states by 40%," wrote Dharmakirti Joshi. "CRISIL expects inflation to average 5.5% this fiscal, against RBI's target of 4%." In the last five years assumptions in the budget have been more realistic and accounting more transparent and "High economic growth in nominal terms - which is a combination of increased real output and inflation - ensured that actual tax collections that came into the coffers of the Union government were higher than what was budgeted," wrote Niranjan Rajadhyaksha. High inflation was key to achieving fiscal targets. This was helped by the RBI keeping its interest rate unchanged at 4% for 24 months from May 2020 to May 2022 (Forbes), while consumer price (CPI) inflation raged at over 6% (RI). The higher the prices the higher is the goods and services tax (GST) collection. "India's GST collections rose 10.28% to reach Rs 1.65 lakh crore (Rs 1.65 trillion) in December, the Finance Ministry announced." ET. Lower borrowing costs help the government which is the biggest borrower. In this year's budget, "To finance the fiscal deficit in 2023-24, the net market borrowings from dated securities are estimated at Rs 11.8 lakh crore (Rs 11.8 trillion)." "The gross market borrowings are estimated at Rs 15.4 trillion ." pib.gove.in. Yields on the benchmark 10-year government bonds closed at 7.178% yesterday. World Government Bonds. "Earnings of listed corporates touched 4% of GST in FY22," because "The total interest bill of listed companies fell 8.4% from a year earlier, or a trillion rupees to Rs 11.5 trillion in FY22." "The interest expenses fell primarily because of RBI cutting the repo rate," and "RBI also printed money to drive down interest rates," wrote Vivek Kaul. Savers lost heavily because interest on savings was much lower than the inflation rate. High corporate profits result in high direct tax collection. "Direct tax collections up to 09th November, 2023 show that gross collections are at Rs 12.37 trillion which is 17.59% higher than the gross collections for the corresponding period last year." IT. "Led by strong topline and improved profitability, at least 23 companies are likely to see their profits more than doubling year-on-year in the December quarter." ET. Bonanza for the government and rich shareholders. Misery for the poor. Give them free food for 5 years at a cost of Rs 11.80 trillion of taxpayer money. pib.gov.in. Get votes in return. Excellent bargain. 

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