Thursday, January 04, 2024

Too big a gap.

"India is likely to project higher economic growth estimates of around 7% for the year 2023/24 fiscal year ending in March, compared with earlier government forecasts when the National Statistical Office releases its first advance GDP estimates on Friday (today). An increased estimate of annual gross domestic product is widely expected after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) revised its own growth forecast to 7% for the current fiscal year, from an earlier estimate of 6.5%." ET. "India's passenger vehicle market, valued at Rs 4.5 lakh crore (Rs 4.5 trillion), has been outpacing volume growth." "As per industry estimates, about 4.1 million passenger vehicles were sold in the local market in the last calendar year." ET. To put it in perspective, in China, "Car sales totaled 2.05 million units in October, up 9.9% from a year earlier, extending gains to a third month. Sales in the first 10 months of 2023 rose 3% year-on-year to 17.46 million units." Reuters. So, China sold more than 4 times as many cars in 10 months of 2023 as India did in the whole year. "India will become the third largest economy by 2030, and the country's GDP is likely to grow from 6.4% in 2023 to 7% in 2026, a report released by S&P Global said." Mint. "By 2027, the Indian GDP is expected to touch $5.15 trillion." By 2027, Germany's GDP is expected to touch $4.95 trillion and that of Japan's is expected to be $5.08 trillion. But, these figures are in current prices, which do not account for inflation, and since they are expressed in dollars the final figure will depend on the rupee's exchange rate in 2027, wrote Vivek Kaul. "In the last week of 2023, India's share in global market capitalization hit a record 3.8%, according to Bloomberg data, consolidating the country's position as the fifth biggest equity market, just behind Hong Kong." This would seem to vindicate our estimated growth in GDP. But, "While social indicators in some parts of the country are comparable to those in advanced countries, across large swathes of our landmass, they are worse than in sub-Saharan Africa." Mint. The World Inequality Report states that "while the top 1% holds 22% of the national income, only 13% rests with the bottom 50%. And it is the top 10% of wage earners, holding about 57% of the country's income, who seem to be driving demand and consumption."  DH. There are bound to be some party poopers. "India's impressive recent economic gains are unlikely to displace China as the world economy's main growth engine any time soon, according to HSBC Holdings Plc." "HSBC expects the gap between the two economies to continue to widen in the foreseeable future, expanding to $17.5 trillion by 2028, based on IMF forecasts." "The gap between the two stood at $15 trillion last year." ET. Forget China and the US. Let's go for the bragging rights. 

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