Wednesday, January 03, 2024

A generous rating.

The government thinks that India deserves a higher sovereign credit rating. "New Delhi has long lamented that rating agencies have been unjust in assigning the country their lowest investment grade." Mint. "We have foreign exchange reserves piled above $600 billion, our capital inflows are robust, external balances are manageable and obligations under no strain. Government debt, at about 80% of GDP is largely internal and hardly outsized for a fast growing economy." All three credit rating agencies - Moody's, Fitch and Standard and Poor's - rate India at the lowest investment grade with a stable outlook. Global Economy. All three are American companies, and yet, in August, the US "Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) was reduced to 'AA+' from 'AAA' by credit rating firm Fitch Ratings." Mint. This, despite the fact that only the US can print dollars. "S&P controversially downgraded the long-term credit rating from AAA representing a 'risk free' rating to AA+ as early as 2011." CNBC. "A join-the-dots study aimed at finding the extent to which fiscal performance, external debt variables, monetary variables, national income and governance factors impact ratings found that the last of these account for over two-thirds of India's score." Governance is everything in India because the government does whatever it likes. "The Reserve Bank of India is fully owned by the Government of India," (RBI) and the government appoints the governor and all the directors. RBI. Since there is a 5-year time limit on goods and services tax (GST) demand the tax department has been issuing demands to companies indiscriminately for the year 2017-18 to beat the deadline of 31 December 2023. Hindustan Unilever (HUL) got a demand of over Rs 4 billion, including penalties, and the Life Insurance Corporation (LIC) of over Rs 8 billion. Companies have to deposit 10% of the demand even if completely unjustified. The government thus rakes in trillions of rupees while the companies go through details of their accounts and file replies and maybe even resort to litigation to get a refund. Either way the companies end up wasting enormous amounts of time and money. Was this done deliberately so that the companies have no time to file their replies and the government gets its 10%? Doesn't pass the smell test (wiktionary) does it? Under the new Telecommunications Bill 2023, "A large number of services will be brought under the purview of the bill and the government will be empowered to exercise powers of surveillance over, and intrude into the privacy of, individuals and organisations." DH. Even the Supreme Court hesitates to hear cases against blatant government repression. "It may be that the court wishes to avoid confrontation with the executive, and therefore 'urges' when it should direct, or 'requests' when it should mandate, or 'persuades' when it should command." The Wire. The sovereign credit rating is probably not just about whether the government can repay its debts but is also an advice to foreign companies and individuals about the safety of doing business in India. When the government can do whatever it likes, without anyone daring to protest, it is dangerous for both money and individuals. So companies are forced to pay 10% and people languish in prison. The rating, in fact, is generous. 

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