Tuesday, January 16, 2024

Enjoy Davos.

"India's growth prospects are very good, and the country's banking sector has seen a remarkable recovery, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Shaktikanta Das said," at the World Economic Forum at Davos in Switzerland. Although delegates who are invited can attend for free, a business class ticket to Zurich will cost Rs 150,000-250,000. google.com. The cost of renting a chalet can run to $100,000 for a week. dailyhunt. "India's economy is likely to surpass USD 4 trillion in 2024-25 and further escalate to USD 5 trillion according to a PHDCCI report." ET. "In a dynamic shift, India is witnessing a rapid rise in its 'affluent' consumer cohort, constituting approximately 4% of the working-age population with a per capita income exceeding US $10,000." "The report added that if current trends persist, 'Affluent India' is anticipated to expand to approximately 100 consumers by 2027." TN. $10,000 converts to Rs 830,000 at today's conversion rate (xe.com) which would be totally inadequate even today for a family of three living in rented accommodation in a small town with one child going to a private school. With the total population at 1,436 million (worldometer), 100 million would be only around 7% of the population. However, 100 million is more than the total population of Germany, so it may be something to boast about. The number of 'Affluent' Indians may be growing, but "Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) growth is tumbling to 4.4% this year from from 7.5% in FY23, and one-third its growth rate at the recovery peak in FT22, 11.2%.The successive, steep slide is alarming - it is unusual that private consumer spending accounts for just 34% of the 7.3% GDP growth, a big slippage from the respective 61 and 72% of the preceding two years, and almost half the pre-pandemic 58.6% average." FE. And so, "Net foreign investment in the year through September  fell to $13 billion, according to calculations from HSBC Holdings Plc., down from $38 billion in the same period a year earlier." ET. "The India government's chief economic advisor called in a paper...for reforms to the way credit ratings agencies assign sovereign ratings, saying their present methodologies are biased towards advanced countries." Reuters. Even so, "Fitch Ratings has affirmed India's Long-Term Foreign- Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at BBB- with a Stable Outlook." This is the lowest investment grade, just one notch above junk rating. "Weak public finances - illustrated by high deficits, debt and interest/ revenue ratio compared with peers - continue to be the largest constraint for the rating." Rating agencies are American and their ratings also serve to warn US businesses of investing in India. "Goods and services (GST) authorities have sent demand notices of Rs 1.45 trillion to about 1,500 businesses in December" for the financial year 2017-18 because there is a time limit of 5 years on such demands. ET. Surely, 5 years is long enough to sort out any discrepancy and a lot of these demands may be unnecessary? No use boasting at Davos. Foreigners are no fools. However, it must be a fantastic holiday at taxpayer expense. Enjoy.      

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