Saturday, January 27, 2024

Babar did conquer and rule India.

"India's foreign exchange reserves saw a dip of $2.79 billion to $616.14 billion for the week ending on January 19, latest data by Reserve Bank of India (RBI) showed." "According to the Weekly Statistical Supplement released by the RBI, Foreign Currency Assets (FCAs) dropped by $2.6 billion to $545.8 billion." ET. As of 24 January, "In the last seven trading sessions foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have net taken out a little over Rs 25,000 crore (Rs 250 billion) (about $3 billion) from the Indian market, CDSL and BAE data showed." TOI. On 28 January, "The frontline indices fell about 1.3% each over the three sessions in the last holiday-truncated week, primarily driven by weakness in the banking sector. In the six sessions since then, foreign funds have sold shares worth Rs 347.66 billion." Mint. "The banking system liquidity deficit breached the Rs 3-trillion mark to hit a 14-year high, pushed by lower government spending, outflow towards tax payments and sluggish growth in deposits. According to the RBI, the liquidity deficit touched Rs 3.34 trillion." Apparently, the RBI "wants liquidity to remain tight to control inflation because tighter liquidity means higher rates and slower credit disbursement." FE. "India's central bank won't consider interest rate cuts unless inflation settles firmly around the 4% target, with policymakers not even discussing the topic yet, Governor Shiktikanta Das said." ET. How resolute! May not be discussing it, but it is the enormous elephant in the room (wikipedia), is it not? Strange that the RBI net bought over $1 trillion between December 2019 and September 2023 (Forbes), reaching a record high of $642.453 billion in the week ended 3 September (BS). When the RBI buys dollars it provides rupees to banks, thereby increasing liquidity ET. When banks are flush with cash lending rates fall and encourage consumption. Higher consumption may lead to higher prices. So, the RBI was increasing liquidity from December 2019 even as the consumer price index (CPI) inflation jumped to 7.4% in the same month, having started to rise from 4% in September. RI. At the same time the RBI was reducing interest rate from 5.15% in October 2019, when inflation was beginning to rise, to 4.0% in May 2020 and held it at that rate for a full 24 months till May 2022. Forbes. As prices keep rising it means that the rupee is buying less. This was reflected in the exchange rate of the rupee which fell from 72.15 to the dollar 2019 to 83.10 to one dollar on 10 January 2024. Forbes. A weak rupee increases the price of imports and results in higher inflation. Thus, by its actions, or lack thereof, the RBI was deliberately stoking inflation. Inflation helps the government by increasing tax collections and reduces the value of its debt. Economics Help. Now the Governor declares his determination to bring inflation down to 4%. The general election is to be held between April and May 2024 (wikipedia) and high prices breed dissatisfaction with the government. All civil servants have to swear allegiance to India and the Constitution of India, and not to the government or any political party. dopt.gov.in. Demolishing Babri Masjid in 1992 (Britannica) will never erase the fact that Babar conquered and ruled India till his death (wikipedia). Nothing changes.

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