Monday, January 22, 2024

Banknotes and SMS money.

"External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar drew an analogy while describing the country's growth in digital public infrastructure and said that the number of cashless transactions the United States does in three years, India does in a month." Cashless transactions make it extremely easy to surveil unsuspecting citizens but whether it makes us any wealthier is highly questionable. It also means that the rupee is unlikely to replace the dollar for trading in the near future, if ever. "Although the amount can't be precisely tracked, the Federal Reserve Board of Governors that foreigners held $950 billion in US banknotes at the end of the first quarter of 2021, or about 45% of all Federal Reserve notes outstanding, including two-thirds of all $100 bills. Overall holdings of US currency have grown rapidly, however, and overseas holdings of Federal Reserve notes would now be worth $1.1 trillion if such holdings are still half of all US currency." St Louis FRED. Foreign holdings of US currency is an interest-free loan to the US. Last month, "The International Monetary Fund has reclassified India's 'de facto' exchange rate regime to 'stabilized arrangement' from 'floating' for December 2022 to October 2023 after an article IV review, with the central bank pushing back against the move." ET. In IMF-speak, it means that the Fund suspects the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) of controlling the rupee against other currencies because the rupee traded between Rs 80.88 and Rs 83.42 to the US dollar between those dates. The RBI rejected the IMF's charge saying it merely manages exchange-rate volatility and does not target a particular level for the rupee. While the rupee moved in a band of 2.8% against the dollar, the euro-dollar rate moved in a band of 7.3%. The annualized daily volatility "For the rupee, it was 3.4%, while for the dollar, it was 6.7%," wrote Madan Sabnavis. "RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said that India has embarked on internationalisation of the rupee because dependence on one currency for global trade was risky and subjected the country to currency volatility. The governor also said that the central bank has managed to achieve currency stability." TOI. Maybe, that is what the IMF was talking about. "While some chinks seem have appeared in the dollar's armor, it is safe to say that there is still no alternative." "As of December 2022, more than 58% of the global foreign exchange reserves were in dollars." Euro reserves peaked at 28% in September 2009. "As of December 2022, they stood at 20.5%," wrote Vivek Kaul. if the rupee is international, foreign banks and funds would buy and sell the currency. Not only will the RBI lose control of currency trading, it might remember how George Soros made $1 billion in 1992 by short selling the pound sterling against the bank of England. Investopedia. Mr Jaishankar boasts that India is cashless. You can hold dollar notes, digital is just a number. The US will continue to print dollars. That is its strength.

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