Wednesday, November 30, 2022

Already there.

"India's economic growth pace halved to 6.3 percent in July-September, amid rising repo rates and contraction in manufacturing output." ET. "Real GDP or GDP at Constant (2011-12) Prices in Q2 2022-23 is estimated at Rs 38.17 lakh crore (Rs 38.17 trillion), as against Rs 35.89 lakh crore in Q2 2021-22, showing a growth of 6.3 percent." "The manufacturing sector contracted by 4.3 percent in the July-September quarter, compared to 5.6 percent growth in the previous quarter." GDP growth was in line with RBI prediction of 6.3%. Prescient. Like China. "It's both the most tantalizing and persistent question in economics: Is China cooking the gross domestic product (GDP) books?" Forbes. But, "Imagine the Herculean task of officials sitting a Beijing room endeavoring to capture with a single metric the activities of 1.4 billion people at epically different levels of prosperity, poverty and grey-economy existence over 90 or 365 days." India is no less difficult. A report by the State Bank of India (SBI) said, "Share of the informal economy has fallen drastically to 15-20 percent of the gross value added (GVA) or the formal gross domestic product (GDP) in 2020-21 from 52.4 percent in 2017-18." TOI. "India's informal economy was deliberately created by the late colonial and the newly independent state which needed to minimise regulative obligations to labor and small firms. Now India's informal economy is the biggest in the world, supporting possibly 400 million livelihoods, with no sector or region exempt," said Prof Barbara Harris-White. Just 15-20% or the largest in the world? "Gross domestic product expansion at about 6% is a sweet spot for Asia's third-largest economy to steer inflation back to the Reserve Bank of India's target, and also to narrow budget and current account deficits, said Rahul Bajoria of Barclays." HT. "The International Monetary Fund earlier this year said India's growth potential in the next five years has slipped to 6.2% from an earlier estimate of up to 7%." However, "Chief Economic Advisor, V Anantha Nageswaran stated...that the Indian economy is on track to achieve a 6.8-7% growth in the current fiscal year." ET. But wouldn't a 7% growth increase India's twin deficits? "India's fiscal deficit for the first seven months of this fiscal year through October stood at 7.58 lakh crore rupees (Rs 7.58 trillion), or 45.6% of annual estimates, government data showed." ET. "Strong domestic demand, higher public spending and a robust financial financial sector are expected to help India sustain the growth rate, with the economy poised to expand 6.8-7% this year, the government said." TOI. But, Indian expats ride to the rescue. "Remittance flows to India will rise 12% to reach $100 billion this year, according to a World Bank report published Wednesday (yesterday)." ET. That will help the current account. 6% is the sweet spot. Why try for higher growth?  

No comments: