Experts may not agree.

In the 2000s, the share of the US "of the global economy rose from a low of 21 - 25%, and its share of global stock markets rose from 42% to 58%," wrote Ruchir Sharma. But, "Between 2010 and early 2020, US debts to the rest of the world rose from 17% to well over 50% of its GDP," and "Two years later they stand at 70% of GDP and a total of $16 trillion." China also has a huge debt problem, plus an ageing population. Indeed, "A total of 7.63 million couples registered to get married across China in 2021, a record low for the past 36 years since 1986 when the Ministry of Civil Affairs started to release such statistics," ET. "China's population increased by 480,000 in a year-on-year comparison from 2020 down from 12 million," and "The number of couples who tied the knot in 2021 was only 56.6 percent of the figure in 2013." "The new winners may well be emerging economies outside of China," thinks Sharma. The question is, who will emerging economies trade with? The GDP of the US in the first quarter of 2022 is estimated at $24.383 trillion, St Louis Fed. China's total GDP in 2021 was 114.37 yuan or $18 trillion, HT. Total GDP of the European Union (EU) in 2020 was $15.292 trillion, World Bank. The total economy of the world may reach $100 trillion in 2022, TOI. Of that, the US, China and the EU comprise a total of around $58 trillion, so if these economies stop growing where will emerging economies send their exports? "The tradable sector of a country's economy is made up of industry sectors whose output in terms of goods and services are traded internationally," wikipedia. This results in competition, innovation and inflow of foreign currency. Non-tradable sectors are services performed by the government, health care, hospitality, food service, retail and construction. These are performed locally and people have to accept whatever is available. And, since these are paid for in local currency any increase in demand will raise prices. In India, "While total exports during last fiscal year (2021-22) increased to a record high of USD 417.81 billion, imports too soared to USD 610.22 billion, leaving a trade gap of $192.41 billion," BS. Household consumption comprises the largest share of the economy. "Private final consumption expenditure (PFCE) for the current fiscal year is projected to be Rs 140 trillion, or 59.3 percent of GDP," BS. "There's a perfect storm heading our way, warns Swaminathan Aiyar," ET. He doubts that the government will be able to control inflation. Surely, that is the job of the Reserve Bank (RBI)? "The country's foreign exchange reserves decreased by USD 3.271 billion to USD 600.423 billion in the week ended April 22, RBI data showed," ET. $600 billion may seem like an awful lot but if the RBI continues to sell dollars to support the rupee in an effort to control prices of imports, we will soon run short. India is a low middle income country and will remain there even if our GDP grows to $5 trillion, ET. That is, if we do not go into a recession, even if experts are careful to deny such a possibility, ET. Falling reserves, soaring imports, soaring inflation, it really is perfect.     

The 46th anniversary today.

Janmajeya Sinha meanders over history, from the barbaric British crushing of India, to Independence, to India joining the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM), to the US siding with Pakistan during Bangladesh's war of independence and US sanctions on India for nuclear tests. Now, "The US sees India as a counter-balance to China and Pakistan," and India needs US technology. "Unfortunately, India's dependence on arms purchase from Russia has complicated its current options", abstaining from voting against Russia at the UN, and, "This is not in its interest. Going forward, as Russia becomes a subaltern power to China, dependence on Russian arms will be very risky." "India must shift arms purchases from Russia to the West." This is terrifying in its stupidity. "The European Union, US, UK and allies have agreed to exclude a number of Russian banks from Swift, an international payment system used by thousands of financial institutions," BBC. "France has frozen 22 billion euros ($24 billion) worth of assets belonging to the Russian Central Bank, French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire said," BS. "European Union countries froze 35 billion euros ($35 billion) of assets in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine," Bloomberg. "Auctioning off one of those mega-yachts owned by Russian oligarchs may become easier if the Biden administration has its wish," USA Today. This is good old-fashioned "loot, pillage and plunder". "All three carry the connotations of goods taken in times of conflict, be it war, civil unrest or piracy," cjr.org. White countries hunting together like a pack of hyenas. In his study of history, Sinha has missed how the US has a habit of running away in panic from its allies. "On April 30, 1975, North Vietnamese troops accepted the surrender of Saigon and thus snuffed out the Republic of Vietnam, humiliating Washington in the process," Air Force Magazine. Today is the 46th anniversary of the debacle. "For Americans, that day will forever be remembered for the spectacle of overcrowded US helicopters fleeing in a badly-timed but well-executed evacuation, their flight to safety contrasting with the terror that gripped thousands of loyal South Vietnamese left to their fates." Despite muscular defense by a supportive media, BBC, the US flight from Afghanistan can only be described as shambolic. "Approximately $7 billion of military equipment the US transferred to the Afghan government over the course of 16 years was left behind in Afghanistan after the US completed its withdrawal from the country in August," CNN. "There has been a rise in incidents of military equipment from Afghanistan being seized in Kashmir, Army Chief General MM Naravane has said." The US controls Swift and dollars. If we allowed it to control our defense equipment as well, we would become slaves of the US. Anyway, who wants stuff that the Taliban has?         

Collateral damage.

Indian farmers are selling wheat to private buyers instead of to the government. "Strong demand following Russia's invasion of Ukraine means the growers are receiving the highest prices ever for their crops, while also easing pressure on the state's grain procurement agency which racks up huge debts as a buyer of last resort," BS. Wheat is one of the crops that the government buys at a minimum support price (MSP) which sets a floor under market prices, wikipedia. This is done to protect farmers from losses if prices fall too low because of a bumper crop, TIE. Farmers in certain states are so dependent on MSP for their earnings that they mounted a year long protest at the outskirts of Delhi forcing the government to repeal 3 Acts which would have allowed farmers to negotiate with private buyers, BS. "Before the nearly 50% surge in global wheat prices, India struggled to export the grain due to annual increases in the MSP to placate the politically powerful farm lobby that made Indian wheat more expensive than world prices." India maintains a buffer stock of wheat and rice in memory of the humiliation of having to depend on the US PL-480 program in the 1960s when two successive seasons of drought resulted in severe shortage, TIE. However, because of MSP, stocks of food grains exceed the mandated buffer. In July 2021, "The central pool of foodgrain stocks held by the Food Corporation of India (FCI) climbed to a record high after a very high procurement of rice and wheat in the past kharif and rabi season involving a payout of Rs 2.5 lakh crore (Rs 2.5 trillion) as the minimum support price (MSP) to the farmers," moneycontrol. "The current holding is about three times higher than the stocking norms for the central pool for the quarter beginning July 1." Now, "Public stocks of wheat have fallen to a three-year-low, although still over 2.5 times the country's minimum operational-cum-strategic reserve requirements," TIE. "Wheat stocks in government godowns stood at 18.99 million tonnes (mt) as on April 1, below last year's corresponding level of 27.30 mt." "Lower state purchases in turn mean big budget savings. Last year, India spent 856 billion rupees ($11.2 billion) buying a record 43.34 million tonnes of wheat from farmers, filling state granaries to the brim and boosting national debt." Not only is the export of wheat helping to reduce government deficit, by reducing spending on MSP, but it is also helping to support the rupee by bringing foreign exchange. The rupee had fallen to 77.02 against the dollar last month, BS, but the exchange rate is at 76.50 to the dollar this morning, xe. So, is it time to celebrate? Sadly, no. "Open market prices of wheat in March rose by 7.77% over March 2021," "the fastest in five years," wrote Vivek Kaul. As a result "the Centre is staring at additional expenses of around Rs 2 lakh crore (Rs 2 trillion), primarily on account of food and fertiliser subsidies," TOI. The war has nothing to do with India. We are collateral damage. Can't punish the perpetrators.

Cutting one's nose unwise.

Prof Nouriel Roubini has been predicting stagflation for years now. The "conditions are right" "for a double whammy of the stagnation of the 1970s and the stock market implosion of 2008", New York Post. "Arguing that the debt ratios were much lower in the 1970s than they are now, Roubini says the upcoming crisis will be much worse." Deglobalization, demographic ageing, climate change, pandemics and wars will contribute to supply chain blocks, rising prices and falling growth, he writes. "Moreover, the sanctions used to deter and punish state aggression are themselves stagflationary. Today, it is Russia against Ukraine and the West. Tomorrow, it could be Iran going nuclear, North Korea engaging in more nuclear brinkmanship, or China attempting to seize Taiwan." "The weaponization of the US dollar that underpins sanctions is also stagflationary." A clear case of 'cut off one's nose to spite one's face'. " We will get a major recession,' Deutsche Bank economists wrote in a report to clients," CNN. "The problem, according to the bank, is that while inflation may be peaking, it will take a 'long time' before it gets back down to the Fed's goal of 2%. That suggests the central bank will raise interest rates so aggressively that it hurts the economy." Jenny Paris wrote of two financial indicators in the US. "One is that traders for the first time see the US Federal Reserve raising its target interest rate by a half-percentage point in each of the next three meetings in May, June and July, which would mark the biggest such increases since 2000. The other is that, for a brief moment, yields on benchmark Treasury Inflation Protected Securities climbed back above zero." Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis President James Bullard, a known inflation hawk, has called for a 75 basis point hike in interest rate next month. "The threat of deglobalization that splits countries into divided blocks could undermine decades of gains in living standards and growth, an IMF official warned," ET. "Just as globalization reflects a process of increasing economic interdependency, deglobalization then marks a retreat from global economic integration. And there are indications that this has been happening for some time already," DW. The reason why the West is mourning the impending demise of globalization is because it gave them untrammeled power over the entire global financial system. "The European Union, US, UK and allies have agreed to exclude a number of Russian banks from Swift, an international payments system used by thousands of financial institutions," BBC. "The sweeping Western sanctions are designed to inflict maximum pain on the country's economy," CNBC. "When fully unleashed, sanctions, too, are weapons of mass destruction (WMDs)," wrote Prof Raghuram Rajan. Exactly. No nation wants to be mass destroyed. "Russia's Gazprom cut Poland and Bulgaria off from its gas..., and threatened to do the same to others, cranking up retaliation for Western sanctions," Reuters. Europe called it "blackmail". Russia cut its own nose with invasion. The West cut its nose with sanctions. Stop yelping. 

No point in looking.

In India, "Now, more than half of the 900 million Indians of legal working age -- roughly the population of the US and Russia combined -- don't want a job, according to the CMIE (Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy)," BS. "Between 2017 and 2022, the overall labor participation rate dropped from 46% to 40%. Among women, data is even starker. About 21 million disappeared from the workforce, leaving only 9% of the eligible population employed or looking for positions." Coincidentally, at midnight of 8-9 November 2016, the government suddenly withdrew all Rs 1000 and Rs 500 notes from circulation without any warning, wikipedia. A study conducted by the Centre for Sustainable Employment (CSE) at Azim Premji University "revealed that 50 lakh (5million) men lost their jobs between 2016 and 2018, and the beginning of the decline of jobs coincided with demonetization in November 2016. However, the report adds that 'no direct causal relationship can be established based only on these trends'," Firstpost. In fact, "The Indian economy was in one of its worst ever deceleration phases even before the Covid-19 pandemic," HT. "GDP growth "was 8.2% in March 2018 and had fallen to just 3.1% in March 2020." A strict lockdown was enforced on the entire nation from 25 March 2020 because of 500 cases of Covid-19, wikipedia, so the slowdown cannot be blamed on the virus. CMIE "monthly time series data revealed that the overall unemployment rate in India was 8.10 percent in February, which fell to 7.6 percent in March. On April 2, the ratio further dropped to 7.5 percent," ET. "The decrease in the ratio shows that the economy is getting back on track after being hit by COVID-19 for two years," said Prof Abhirup Sarkar. Maybe, but it could also be because people, who have stopped looking for jobs, are not being classified as unemployed. "CMIE data shows that the pandemic has shrunk the active pool of job seekers. And a large chunk of the workforce are reporting themselves as students because they see no employment prospects," wrote Shriya Mohun. "Only 18.6% of working-age women in India participate in the labor force, three times lower than men, says the Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) 2020," wrote Bhuvana Anand, Bashali Bomjan & Sarvnipun Kaur. A large reason is exclusion of women from jobs deemed to be 'hazardous or arduous' by laws enacted by various states. "McKinsey Global Institute estimates that by 2025, equal opportunities for women in India could add $700 billion to the economy."Of the 28 million unemployed persons in 2019-20, young workers in the 15-29 age group accounted for 24 million," wrote Sudipto Mundle. "Among those who are employed, 90% are employed in unskilled or low-skill jobs." Why look for something that doesn't exist. An asthenic people has given up.  

Let them eat fruits and veggies.

"Russia and Ukraine together supply 30% of the world's wheat. So the war has made wheat prices skyrocket," wrote Prof Jessica Fanzo. "Whole unrefined wheat is a major source of starch and energy, as well as protein, vitamins (notably B vitamins), dietary fiber and phytochemicals." But it is gluten that makes "it also an ideal component of bread, noodles, pasta, cookies, crackers and many other baked foods and snacks." "In the countries that grow two-thirds of the world's crops, governments provide $540 billion in agricultural support." Prof Fanzo would like to see increased "cultivation of fruits and vegetables". Apart from its nutritional value wheat is cultivated because it is easier to store and transport whereas fruits and vegetables are perishable and need cold storage with controlled humidity which need electricity, Cooling India. Each fruit and vegetable has its own requirement. "Vegetables such as carrots, cucumbers and potatoes are sensitive to ethylene, a chemical emitted by many fruits including apples, peaches and tomatoes," Stancold. "All fruits and vegetables have a 'critical temperature', below which the produce will be affected undesirably, such as blackening and softening in carrots." "An already sweltering summer and acute coal shortages are triggering blackouts across parts of India," "sparked by the scarcity of coal -- the fossil fuel that accounts for 70% of India's electricity generation," ET. "Coal inventories held by Indian power plants remain tight at nine days' worth of stock as of mid-April and could result in power outages, Nomura has said," ET. As the world reaches a population of 8 billion people, worldometer, farming is becoming highly intensive. Many fruits are produced by pollination of flowers for which we need insects, wikipedia. "Extreme land use combined with warming temperatures are pushing insect ecosystems towards collapse in some parts of the world, scientists reported," CNN. Crude oil prices are volatile but continue to remain above $100 per barrel, NDTV. It's not just wheat. "Russia's invasion of Ukraine has disrupted the supply of almost half of the world's sunflower oil exports, forcing companies to turn to less desirable alternatives such as palm oil in products ranging from potato chips to cookies," ET. Higher demand for palm oil has pushed up its price. "Indonesia, the world's top palm oil producer, announced plans to ban exports of the most widely used vegetable oil..., in a shock move that could further inflame surging global food inflation," ET. "Western sanctions on Russia, a major exporter of potash, ammonia, urea and other soil nutrients, have disrupted shipment of these key inputs around the globe," Reuters, forcing farmers to reduce acreage and use of fertilizers which will worsen food shortage. "While limited supplies and soaring prices are set to worsen inflation of food items like salad dressing and mayonnaise in wealthy economies like the US, developing nations like India are set to feel the worst impacts," TOI. Let them eat fruits and vegetables, says Prof Fanzo, safe in the US. Marie Antoinette wasn't so lucky, Britannica.   

Impossible to understand.

"Central banks across the world need to apologize for totally underestimating the problem for over a year. Inflation has hit 8.5% in the US and 7.5% in the Euro-zone, way above their inflation target of 2%," wrote Swaminathan S Anklesaria Aiyar. "The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) suffered the same illusions." Politically correct and safe. Each central bank must act according to its economic needs. So should the RBI. Monthly consumer price index (CPI) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the US shows that inflation has been running at around or below 2% till March of 2021, following which it has gradually risen to the present level, usinflationcalculator. "Americans are, by many measures, in a better financial position than they have been in many years," forbesindia. "Workers have seized the upper hand in the labor market, attaining the largest raises in decades and quitting their jobs at record rates." "Cumulatively, Americans are sitting on...$2.3 trillion more in savings in the past 19 months than would have been expected in the pre-pandemic path." Similarly, in the Euro area, inflation has been below 2% for nearly a decade and started to creep above 2% since July 2021, rateinflation. In India, on the other hand, "The wholesale price index has been in double digits for almost a year and has just skyrocketed to a horrendous 14.5%," wrote Aiyar. "This will hit purchasing power, economic growth and the stock markets." In 2021, "The government...asked the RBI to maintain the retail inflation at 4 percent with a margin of 2% on either side for another five-year period ending March 2026," ET. Which means between 2% and 6%. But a "RBI-sponsored working paper (in May 2021), concluded that a higher threshold for inflation is conducive for growth in emerging economies. For India, growth is maximized if inflation is allowed to rule around 6% and minimized once prices spike to 9.5%, the researchers wrote," ET. Extraordinary. The RBI is recommending a range of 6-9.5%, ignoring government mandate. The annual CPI inflation rate in India was around the 4% level till 2020 when it shot up to 6.62%, macrotrends. The lower inflation rate was achieved by controlling food prices. "To achieve low food prices, the Modi government has placed harsh market controls on agricultural produce," Quartz India. "The Economic Survey 2022 estimated India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate at 8.0-8.5% in 2022-23, which hinges on crude oil prices being in the range of $70-$75 a barrel," moneycontrol. Why did the Survey assume such moderate prices for oil when Goldman Sachs predicted oil at $100 per barrel because of rising demand in December 2021? CNBC. If CPI inflation was already above 4%, why did the RBI expect it to fall spontaneously if the economy with a population of 1.4 billion people, worldometer, started to grow at a scorching rate of 8.5% as the Survey predicted? Incomprehensible. Only they can understand. 

An unpalatable menu.

"A senior US official has warned China against providing 'material support' to Russian President Vladimir Putin's 'unprovoked' war in Ukraine, saying sanctions against Moscow would give Beijing some idea of the menu from which America could choose," ET. It was US Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman. "She hoped that Beijing would learn the 'right lessons' from Russia's war, including that it can't separate the US from its allies." But China is not waiting for US sanctions. Instead it is shutting down parts of its country as a continuation of its zero Covid policy, CNBC. Around 3 weeks back, "The lockdown of Shanghai, China's biggest city, has been extended to cover its entire population of more than 25 million as the global trade hub battles the worst Covid-19 outbreak since the pandemic began in China more than two years ago," CBC. "An economist at the Chinese University of Hong Kong estimated the shutdown of the critical financial and trade center of Shanghai is costing $46 billion a month, or about 3% of GDP." "The strictest Covid-19 lockdown in China since the pandemic began has resulted in container goods sitting at Shanghai port for nearly two weeks, according to supply chain data provider project44," ET. "Industrial cities and trading ports -- including vital hubs like Changchun, Jilin, Shenyang, Tianjin, Shenzhen and Guangzhou -- have shuttered businesses, imposed travel restrictions, or told residents to stay home," Time. What does it matter to the US? "The already extensive disruptions to global supply chains are being exacerbated by the lockdowns in China, adding to inflationary pressures and difficulties in procuring a broad range of consumer goods," said Prof Eswar Prasad. As a result, "Battered by high inflation readings and sharp messages from (US) Federal Reserve officials about the need for interest rate increases, bond prices have tumbled this year at a pace investors have rarely seen," wsj. Fall in prices of bonds mean that yields are soaring, thus increasing borrowing costs for industry and housing. Also, "Stocks plunged on Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average suffering its worst one-day loss since the throes of the pandemic, as the latest raft of corporate earnings and prospect of rising rates spurred a wave of selling," CNBC. "The pound slumped to its lowest level for more than 18 months amid signs the economy is faltering in the face of soaring inflation. On a worrying day for the Bank of England and Treasury, a flurry of reports showed a slump in retail sales, a collapse in consumer confidence, and a sharp slowdown in private sector activity," thisismoney. In the EU, "The perfect storm of rising prices, constrained supply chains, and economic deceleration is fuelling fears of stagflation and a sudden halt to the post-coronavirus revival," euronews. Shockingly, "US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen...said it was worth considering taking steps to lower US tariffs on Chinese goods given the 'desirable effects' such move on lowering US inflation, which has hit 40-year highs this year," Reuters. Surely, that's not on Wendy's menu? The left hand knoweth not what the right hand doeth.       

Misguided concern.

"It is one of India's tragedies, that a hyper-competitive, first-past-the-post populist democracy has helped bad economic ideas gain faster traction than good ones. You only need one state to start offering something 'free', and soon it becomes a national obsession," wrote R Jagannathan. Apparently, it all started when "Telugu biddas' (meaning Andhra Pradesh) offered farm loan waivers in 2014. In March, "The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) won 92 out of 117 seats in Punjab," HT, by promising free water and free electricity up to 300 units. Now it is the "BJP-governed Himachal, which has promised 125 units of free power, and no water bills in rural areas, in the run-up to next state elections". As a result of the policy of free electricity, "As of January 31, 2022, the debt of power discoms (distribution companies) towards central power generation stations, IPPs and renewable energy generators stand at Rs 98,722 crore (Rs 987.22 billion). If the dues to state gencos are also included, the total outstanding dues of discoms would be Rs 1.6 lakh crores, said a statement from the Union Ministry of Power," Mint. "A surge in demand for electricity has prompted states including Punjab and Uttar Pradesh in the North and Andhra Pradesh in the South to cut off supply. The disruption, as long as eight hours in some places, is forcing customers to either endure the heat or look for costlier back-up options," ET. "The political dialogue built around freebies is fraught with danger," said former Chairman of the 15th Finance Commission NK Singh. "Therefore, it's not about how cheap the freebies are but how expensive they are for the economy, life quality and social cohesion in the long run. We must dread the thought of replicating the culture of competitive freebies." "In a marathon meeting of Prime Minister Narendra Modi with senior bureaucrats, a few officials raised concern over populist schemes announced by several states, claiming they are economically unsustainable and could take them down the same path as Sri Lanka, sources said," News18. While criticising state governments, no one seems to have the courage to point out the numerous freebies announced by the PM himself, jagranjosh.com. The India Shining campaign by the BJP led to then Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee losing the general election in 2004, wrote Yashwant Deshmukh & Sutanu Guru. "Modi has probably learnt from mistakes of his predecessors, and has only upped the game with one massive social welfare scheme after another. If the 2019 verdict had the stamp of solid approval for Ujjwala from female voters, Modi followed it up with the first dose of ration, cash in the account of farmers, housing, toilets and so on." "The share of cesses and surcharges in the gross tax revenue of the Centre has nearly doubled to 19.9 percent in 2020-21 from 2011-12," and "Under existing Finance Commission (FC) framework, the cesses and surcharges collected by the Centre are not part of the tax devolution," BS. Which means Modi is not sharing the booty with the states. States are being pushed towards Sri Lanka. But who will dare tell Dear Leader?         

Not about them, it's about us.

"Authorities riding bulldozers have razed buildings or house extensions built 'illegally' in neighborhoods that recorded communal clashes recently in Delhi, Madhya Pradesh (MP) and Gujarat, raising questions as critics called these demolition drives a move to 'bulldoze' a particular community," ET. Uttar Pradesh (UP) Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath revels in his sobriquet "Bulldozer Baba" because his government has been demolishing houses of alleged criminals since they may have been constructed with proceeds of crime, ET. It is irrelevant to supporters that children, who are entirely innocent, may have been rendered homeless. In Delhi, "Tears, pain and a sense of helplessness were seen on the faces of people who had shops in Jahangirpuri," as shops were demolished and "many people lost their source of income", TOI. North Delhi Municipal Corporation claimed that these shops encroached on public land and had demolition been planned a week previously, TOI. It is significant that UP, MP, Gujarat and all 3 municipal corporations in Delhi are run by the BJP, wikpedia. So brazen are the officials that, "The BJP administered North Delhi Municipal Corporation...demolished several buildings in Jahangirpuri, which saw communal violence a few days ago, despite Supreme Court order. Following urgent pleas, SC had ordered a stay on demolitions until it examined the legality of NDMC's claim that the structures were illegal encroachment. However, NDMC continued for over an hour after the court order," ET. Residents questioned why demolitions were being carried out now when they had been there for years, TOI. And, why selective? "Mobile shop owner Javed wondered why they were targeted when encroachments were rife in the city." Exactly. Especially when Prime Minister Narendra Modi, no less, boasted to have conferred "ownership rights to four million residents of unauthorised colonies", HT. 'Unauthorised' means constructions on illegally occupied acres of public land. A Public Interest Litigation (PIL) against arbitrary demolitions was dismissed by MP High Court because "the PIL doesn't concern any larger public interest". Extraordinary that the court does not feel it is in "larger public interest" to restrain vindictive tyrannical behavior by public servants. "Section 322 (of DMC Act) empowers the MCD Commissioner to remove any encroachment and any article being hawked on public streets without notice," HT. In the case of MC Mehta (2006), the Supreme Court "highlighted that such illegalities could not have happened without active connivance of MCD officials," and was due to "extraneous considerations". Meaning bribes. "There is a visible surge in the hard right among Muslims in India," wrote Rajiv Tuli of the RSS. "They are well supported by the entrenched 'intellectuals and any Leftist who magnify any incident from a majority-minority perspective." It is not just minorities. This is a start. If not restrained now they will come for Hindus. Who will speak for us then? 

Act before trinity becomes impossible.

"Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman...said that inflation in India has not breached the inflation target 'so badly' even as the country reels from surging prices amid global challenges like geopolitical strifes and supply chain disruptions," ET. "Retail inflation galloped to 6.95 percent in March from 6.07 percent in the previous month on the back of hardening of food prices," ET. "The RBI has the mandate to maintain inflation at a medium-term target of 4% with an upper tolerance level of 6% and lower tolerance level of 2%." Sitharaman is probably comparing with the US where, in March, "Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 8.5 percent before seasonal adjustment," Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), while, "The Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand increased 1.4% in March." "Final demand prices moved up 11.2 percent for the 12 months ended March," BLS. On the other hand, "India's wholesale price-based inflation quickened to 14.55 percent in March from 13.11 percent in February amid hardening fuel prices," ET. Higher CPI inflation in the US may be partly due to base effect because the CPI inflation in March 2021 was 2.6%, usinflationcalculator, whereas, "The all-India general CPI inflation rose to 5.52% in March 2021 (new base 2012=100), compared to 5.03% in February 2021," BS. The difference between the US and India is that the US Federal Reserve has already raised its Funds rate by 25 basis points and economists forecast a 50 basis points rise in May, Reuters, whereas the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept its interest rate at 4% for "the 11th straight time in a row, and retained its accommodative stance", which means it could lower rates if it desires, TOI. Another way of looking at inflation is that it indicates a fall in the buying power of the currency. Since prices have been rising at an average of around 2% over the years in the US, The Balance, compared to an average of around 6% in India, inflation.eu, it follows that the rupee must fall in value against the dollar. "The rupee weakened against the US dollar...as the greenback strengthened globally to its highest level in two years amid surging US bond yields and anticipation of the Federal Reserve aggressively hiking interest rates," ET. "Foreign investors have been withdrawing money from equities since the last six months, pulling out a net Rs 1.48 lakh crore (Rs 1.48 trillion) between October 2021 and March 2022," ET. "India's trade deficit widened to $192 billion in financial year 2021-22 (FY22) as imports hit a record high of $610 billion," BS. With foreign exchange draining out the RBI has been selling dollars to  protect the rupee from a sharp fall so that forex reserves have fallen from a high of $642 billion to $607 billion in March, just enough for 1 year's imports, investing.com. The lower the rupee the higher the prices. Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal said that weakening the rupee is not in national interest, NDTV. The minister should be worrying about the futility of fighting the impossible trinity instead, wikipedia. The only remedy is to raise rates faster than the Fed. Or watch the rupee plummet.  

US must commit to Taiwan, says Abe.

""Russia's invasion of Ukraine has reminded many people of the fraught relationship between China and Taiwan," wrote former Prime Minister of Japan Abe Shinzo. The differences between Ukraine and Taiwan are 1. Ukraine is an independent nation, but "Neither Japan nor the US has official diplomatic relations with Taiwan, and most countries around the world do not recognize Taiwan as a sovereign state." China can take over Taiwan as one of its provinces. 2. The Taiwan Relations Act of the US requires it to provide Taiwan with military equipment "necessary to enable Taiwan to maintain sufficient self-defense capacity". However, the crucial differences are 1. Ukraine has land borders with many European countries, google maps, through which it is being supplied with advanced weapons by the US and around 30 other countries, India Today. Whereas, Taiwan is a tiny island near the coast of mainland China and can be blockaded, preventing any supplies, google maps. Thousands of foreign fighters are fighting for the Ukraine army, India Today, but it will be impossible for significant numbers of foreigners to come to Taiwan. Taiwan has a population of about 24 million, wikipedia, and though 71% of the population is between 15 and 64 years of age how many will be able to carry weapons? "The time has come for the US to make clear that it will defend Taiwan against any attempted Chinese invasion," wrote Abe. But, is the US prepared to take significant losses in lives and equipment and will it use nuclear weapons if it does? The world has noticed the use of savage sanctions on Russia. "When fully unleashed, sanctions, too, are weapons of mass destruction (WMDs). They may not topple buildings, but they destroy firms, financial institutions, livelihoods, and even lives. Like military WMDs, they inflict pain indiscriminately, striking both the culpable and the innocent," wrote Prof Raghuram Rajan. The Solomon Islands have signed a pact with China which "said Chinese warships could stop in the Solomon Islands and China could send police and armed forces there", ABC news. "German employers and unions have joined together in opposing an immediate European Union ban on natural gas imports from Russia" because it would "lead to factory shutdowns and loss of jobs", ABC news. Despite past enmity the regime in Iran is siding with Russia against Ukraine, AP. Iran has been suffering under severe US sanctions for decades, wikipedia. President Ebrahim Raisi of Iran vowed to target Israel's heart if it tried to attack Iran, VOA. If Russia helps Iran to make tactical nukes oil prices will go to infinity and the global economy, including those of the US and Europe, will collapse. Russian oil and gas will become invaluable. Russia's invasion of Ukraine and China's refusal to join in the Western sanctions mean that "it can no longer be satisfactory to let market forces alone dominate trade and global economy," wrote Alex Brummer. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen wants the world to move to "friend shoring". Which means a breakup of the world into regions, with countries creating different currencies for trade. That will end US dominance. You can detonate WMDs. But you cannot control the results.    

India is the goose.

In the US,"The worst bond rout in decades show few signs of abating, threatening further pain for both investors and borrowers," WSJ. Because of inflation and the impending rise in interest rates. "In March, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers rose 1.2 percent, seasonally adjusted, and rose 8.5 percent over the last 12 months, not seasonally adjusted," US Bureau of Labor Statistics. "A big reason why many investors expect continued high inflation in the near term is that households are flush with cash and eager to spend money on travel and leisure activities as they begin to worry less about the Covid-19 pandemic." "The Fed (Federal Reserve) kicked off a new tightening cycle by raising the benchmark interest rate by 25 bps (basis points) to a range of 0.25 to 0.5 percent on March 16," BS. "The Fed would stage 50-bps hikes of interest rates at the monetary meetings in May, June, July and September, respectively, said economists with Citibank." In India, "Retail inflation galloped to 6.95 percent in March from 6.07 percent in the previous month on the back of hardening food prices," ET. Food is transported by trucks and prices of petrol and diesel have been increased by Rs 10 each in a series of 14 price increases," NDTV. Extortionate taxes are the reason. "On 1 April, the central government tax and Delhi government tax worked out to around 44% of the retail price of petrol," wrote Vivek Kaul. In Mumbai taxes comprise over 50% of retail prices. "In 2014-15, the total excise duty earned by the central government by taxing petroleum products had stood at 0.79% of GDP." Prime Minister Narendra Modi came to power in 2014, wikipedia. "Since then, the tax collected by the central government has gone up and it was 1.88% of the GDP in 2020-21. In the first six months of 2020-21, the last fiscal, it stood at 1.58% of the GDP."  As the high price of fuel drives up the cost of all goods and services the government rakes in record taxes through GST. "Gross GST collection in March touched an all-time high of over Rs 1.42 lakh crore (Rs 1.42 trillion), the Finance Ministry said," ET. "India's wholesale price-based (WPI) inflation quickened to 14.55 percent in March from 13.11 percent in February amid hardening fuel prices," ET. "Indirect tax buoyancy corresponds directly to inflation and high inflation does translate into high indirect tax buoyancy, explains DK Srivastava, chief policy adviser, EY India," wrote Gireesh Chandra Prasad. Greed for taxes will push up borrowing costs. "For months, India prepared for a remarkable milestone: getting its bonds listed on global indices," Mint. That may have brought in up to $40 billion in foreign investment which would have pushed up bond prices and lowered yields. But, it fell through because the government will not give up taxes on these transactions. Perhaps, they should ask schoolchildren about the goose and golden eggs, read.gov. Slitting India's belly.   

The living have to live.

"Extreme poverty in India dropped to 10.2% in the pre-Covid year of 2019 from as much as 22.5% in 2011 and the pace of reduction in rural India has been more dramatic than in urban areas, according to a World Bank working paper," FE. "Extreme poverty has been measured in terms of the number of people living on less than $1.90 a day (roughly Rs 145)." A working paper from the IMF "suggested that extreme poverty in India was as low as 0.8% in 2019 and the country managed to keep it at that level in 2020 despite the pandemic, by resorting to food transfers through the Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Yojana." Poverty estimates in India are based on private surveys, wrote Prof Himanshu. "Private, because the government, which used to conduct consumption expenditure surveys (CES) and poverty update lines, has abdicated its responsibility." Poverty levels are estimated from the Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) which is an average of national consumption and "PFCE estimates do not give the distribution of consumption across households which is a prerequisite for estimating poverty." The government has an aversion to accurate figures. "The New York Times, in its article titled 'India is stalling WHO's efforts to make Global Covid Death Toll Public', claimed the WHO estimate will show that India's death toll is at least four million, almost eight times the official number," HT. In 2021, a local Gujarati newspaper, the Sandesh, started counting numbers of deaths from Covid. "On the night of 16 April, the journalists drove 150km (93 miles) around Ahmedabad and visited 21 cremation grounds," BBC. "At the end of the night the team had counted more than 200 bodies. But the next day, Ahmedabad counted only 25 deaths." "On 5 May, the paper counted 83 deaths in Vadodara. The official figure was 13." On 5 May 2021, "Planeloads of ventilators, oxygen supplies and antiviral drugs began arriving last week, with photos showing massive parcels being unloaded at new Delhi airport," CNN. "Medical workers and local officials are still reporting the same devastating shortages that have strained the health care system for weeks now -- raising questions, even among foreign donors, of where the aid is going." Why distribute medical supplies when you deny any problem exists? Instead, "Tax authorities in India raided several offices of one of the world's biggest selling newspapers" CNN. The newspaper, Dainik Bhaskar, "shocked India with its reporting of dead bodies in the river Ganga during the brutal second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic," and "criticized authorities for under-reporting Covid-19 deaths and challenged state officials and the government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi over the handling of the crisis." How are the levels of poverty and Covid deaths linked? Poor people do not care for statistics and depend on government handouts for survival. "Modi has probably learnt from mistakes of his predecessors and has only upped the game with with one massive social welfare scheme after another," Mint. The dead are gone. The living have to survive somehow.     

At least something to laugh about.

"Secretary of State Antony Blinken told European allies that the United States believes the Russian war in Ukraine could last through the end of 2022," because "there are no indications that Russian President Vladimir Putin's ultimate goals have changed, and it is unlikely he will pursue diplomatic negotiations unless faced with military defeat." CNN. Or if he wins. This means that the US and Europe plan to supply arms and provoke Ukraine to keep on fighting regardless of casualties. "The longer the war goes on, the more brutal the humanitarian toll on the people of Ukraine." So who gains? "The US has supplied Kyiv military aid worth more than $2.4 billion since Russian forces invaded Ukraine," India Today. "But it's not just the US. Canada, the UK, Germany, Italy and Turkey are also among 30-odd countries providing Ukraine with weapons and defence systems that their state-backed private companies specialise in manufacturing." The stench of human carrion is irresistible to vultures. Lend money to prolong the feast. "On April 7, the European Union promised a further $543 million, taking the 27-member bloc's military aid for Kyiv to $1.63 billion." There is widespread hunger in Lebanon. "Lebanon is just a single, acute victim of a worldwide food crisis, one that David Beasley, executive director of the UN's World Food Programme (WFP), recently told the New York Times has 'no precedent even close to this since World War II'," Vox. The price of crude oil has jumped, with benchmark Brent crude trading over $111 per barrel, this morning, oilprice.com. "You can't drink oil, but the price of that keystone global commodity, which was already high pre-invasion, may affect the cost of food more than any other single factor." Ironic that President Joe Biden canceled the Keystone XL pipeline which would have carried shale oil from Canada, CNBC. US purchasing oil from other sources is one of the reasons for high fuel prices. A UN report says that "As many as 1.7 billion people --one-third of whom are already living in poverty -- are now highly exposed to disruptions in food, energy and finance systems," of which 1.2 billion in 69 countries are facing a "perfect storm", TIE. "They include 25 countries in Africa, 25 in Asia and the Pacific, and 19 in Latin America and the Caribbean." Sri Lanka has defaulted on all of its $51 billion of foreign debt as it has run out of foreign exchange for imports," ET. "Argentina's monthly inflation rate soared to 6.7% in March, the government said," while the "annual inflation hit 55.1% in the month", Reuters. Bare numbers hide the extreme suffering of people trying to buy essentials to survive as prices rise inexorably. Amidst all this misery, the Pakistan Army made us guffaw when it said that it has "nothing to do with politics" and Pakistan's "strength lies in the institutions, be it Parliament, Supreme Court or the Armed Forces", ET. We Indians have been blaming them for state sponsored terrorism, wikipedia, all these years when they are such comedians. Who knew?

What use are studies and reports?

A paper by Amit Basole et al reported that, "Of the 28 million unemployed persons in 2019-20, young workers in the age 15-29 age group accounted for 24 million," wrote Sudipto Mundle. A report by McKinsey Global Institute says that, "90 million jobs will have to be created between 2023 and 2030 (i.e. an annual growth of 1.5%) to clear the backlog of youth unemployment before the 'demographic dividend' window, the high working age share of the population, starts closing." "Among those who are employed, 90% are employed in unskilled or low-skilled jobs," while "the unemployment rate is as high as 35-40% among graduates and technical graduates," showing the low standard of our education system. "Women's Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) in the latest Periodic Labor Force Survey (PLFS) before the pandemic (2018-19) was just 18.6% compared to 55.6% for men," wrote Abhishek Jha. Abysmal. LFPR is the proportion of the working age population working or actively looking for work, Investopedia. The fall in LFPR has been most pronounced among rural women. Female LFPR has fallen by more than 20% in the 16 years since 2004-05, wrote Ajit Ranade. "As per a report by the International Labor Organization. India ranks 121 out of 131 countries on female LFPR." According to the World Bank, India's female LFPR was lower than that of Sudan, Saudi Arabia and even Pakistan in 2020. There are many social causes, such as childcare, having to travel long distances to work and personal safety, for women's reluctance to work. Ironically, "The pro-women law of 2016 that mandated 26-week maternity leave could have perversely decreased rather than increased women's participation in the workforce, as companies may have grown more reluctant to recruit women of child-bearing age. Teamlease had estimated an additional loss of 1.8 million female jobs attributable to this piece of legislation alone." No job means no earnings, so people have gambled on the stock market. The total number of investors has jumped to 89.6 million, "With addition of 34.5 million accounts in FY22 (2021-22) alone," so that the Nifty50 index gave a return of 18.9%, FE. Foreign portfolio investors sold Indian shares worth $17.1 billion but domestic institutional investors bought shares worth $29.8 billion in FY22. The share of stocks in total savings of Indians is at a record high of 4.8%, TOI. Large numbers of Indians, especially the young, are first time investors in cryptocurrencies, IBEF. The 2022 Budget has been ruthless on crypto investors with a flat 30% tax on profits but no relief on losses, ET. "The trouble with retail investors is that they start investing after they have seen a considerable amount of money being made," wrote Vivek Kaul. If you enter at the summit the only way is down. No jobs, no earnings and losses. What use are studies?

Iron bridge and endotoxins.

"One morning last week, when four or five men - including some from the state government's Irrigation Department - turned up in Amiyavar village, near the city of Sasaram, with an earth excavator and gas cutting torches, local villagers were happy," BBC. "For three days, the men would arrive at 7am and work until dusk, chipping away at the remains of the bridge, cutting the iron with gas torches and using excavators to loosen the earth. The metal was then transported in a hired van and deposited at the warehouse of a local scrap dealer." It was a heist. The bridge was 60ft (18m) long and 12ft high. Police were quick to act. "Bihar police on April 10, 2022 arrested eight persons including a Sub Divisional Officer (SDO) of the water department in connection with the theft of the 60-foot abandoned bridge in the Rohtas district," Zee. Police recovered 247 kg of iron. "For decades, Mohammad Shahabuddin ruled Bihar's Siwan with an iron fist, the master of a criminal empire who had slain dozens," The Print. He had been Member of Parliament for the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), wikipedia, and had also been in the Janata Dal (JD), both of which have been ruling Bihar for decades in coalition with other parties, Outlook. Since he died of Covid-19 his wife is feeling threatened by his hitman Raees Khan and his brother Ayub Khan who want to take over his turf. "Over the period 2004 to 2019, the share of criminal politicians in Lok Sabha elections has sharply risen, especially after 2014; 24% of the winners in the 2004 polls had a criminal background, this share rose to 30% in the 2009 general elections, 34% in 2014 and 43% in 2019," wrote Vani S Kulkarni & Raghav Gaiha. India's official death toll due to Covid-19 has been put at 500,000, Reuters, but some researchers put the toll at over 4 million, TOI. Over 1.9 million children lost at least one parent or caregiver, ET. Some of these deaths would have been due to endotoxins in Cadilla's remdesiver injections, batch number V100167, wrote Priyanka Pulia. While regulators in other states, including in Gujarat where the drug was being manufactured, did nothing, it was Bihar's regulator who sent samples to the government's Central Drugs Laboratory in Kolkata where the samples were discovered to contain endotoxins. Bihar regulator has filed a complaint in Patna civil court. Politicians could not get away with crime if civil servants were diligent and honest. The Indian Administrative Service (IAS), the heir of the British Indian Civil Service (ICS) has total control over the administration of the central and all state governments in India, wikipedia. "The public perception of the IAS is of an elitist, self-serving, status quo perpetuating set of bureaucrats who are out of touch with reality, who wallow in their privileges and social status and have lost the courage of conviction to stand up for what's right," wrote former IAS officer Duvvuri Subbarao. Without at least passive connivance of civil servants it would be impossible for politicians to indulge in any criminal act. It's everywhere. 

Corner with no exit.

"Britain and the European Union...announced coordinated actions against pro-Moscow separatists in Ukraine, as well as more Russian oligarchs and their relatives," India Today. "President Joe Biden has now said Russia's war in Ukraine amounts to 'genocide,' accusing President Vladimir Putin of trying to 'wipe out the idea of even being a Ukrainian'," AP. Which is a stupid lie because Russia has occupied only the eastern Donbass region and has created a land connection with Crimea, BBC. "Russian forces have now fully withdrawn from northern Ukraine to Belarus and Russia, British military intelligence said," Reuters. Hardly wiping our Ukrainians. Biden must be seriously confused. "The US and Britain say they are looking into reports that chemical weapons have been used by Russian forces attacking the Ukrainian port of Mariupol," BBC. There were numerous accusations of use of chemical weapons, such as Sarin and Chlorine, by both rebels and the Syrian government, wikipedia. The global chemical watchdog, the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons could not prove those attacks, AP. On the other hand, "In a televised briefing..., Russia's Ministry of Defence repeated the government's stance that the attack was faked, adding that it had proof that Britain participated in its staging," Reuters. In other words, a false flag operation. Then President Barack Obama had drawn a 'red line' on the use of chemical weapons, but backed away from the threat of direct use of US military against the Syrian government of Bashar al-Assad, apparently because the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran would not accept use of force against their ally and Iran would withdraw from the nuclear deal, according to Wall Street Journal reporter Jay Solomon, BI. Or maybe, world leaders knew it was a false flag operation. What is not in doubt is the use of white phosphorus by US forces in Iraq and in Syria, hrw. It appears that when the US and its allies commit real genocide it is legal. "Britain...backed considering Nuremberg-style to try 'war criminal' Vladimir Putin in his absence for atrocities committed in Ukraine," Evening Standard. All these fulminations are meant to back Russia into a corner but can it boomerang? Western countries imposed sanctions on Russia when it annexed Crimea in 2014, NATO, and those sanctions have not been lifted. Russia knows that present sanction will never be lifted because the US and its allies want complete surrender of Russia with total withdrawal from Crimea and the Donbass regions. Which is never going to happen, especially after the deaths of thousands of Russian soldiers. Abkhazia and South Ossetia are de facto independent nations even though most other countries have not recognised them as such. There is therefore no incentive for Russia to agree to any peace deal. "Record-high food inflation is tightening its grip on the global economy, most critically in developing nations where financial distress is contributing to increased political instability," ET. Biden is desperate to sign a nuclear deal with Iran, NR, which will allow him to lift sanctions on Iran's oil leading to lower gas prices in the US. That might prompt an attack on Iran by Israel and Arab nations which will send oil prices to infinity. Obama denied threatening to shoot Israeli planes in 2015, The Times of Israel. Biden has a lot to deny.

Reason for the smile.

"Retail inflation galloped to 6.95% in March from 6.07 percent in the previous month on the back of hardening food prices," ET. "The RBI, in its latest monetary policy review, has revised upwards its inflation projection to 5.7% from 4.5% earlier on the back of oil and commodity prices globally." "More specifically, food price inflation in rural areas has more than doubled, from 3.94% in March 2021 to 8.04% in March 2022," ET. "Inflation in 'oils and fats' rose to 18.79%" and "Vegetable inflation surged to 11.64% in March while in 'meat and fish' the rate of price rise stood at 9.63 compared to February 2022." In the latest meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on 8 April, interest rate was left "unchanged at 4% for the 11th straight time," ET. The RBI increased its inflation forecast to 5.7% from 4.5% in February. In the US, "The Labor Department said...that its consumer price index jumped 8.5% in March from 12 months earlier, the sharpest year-over-year increase since 1981. Prices have been driven up by bottle-necked supply chains, robust consumer demand and disruptions to global food and energy markets worsened by Russia's war against Ukraine," ET. "The Federal Reserve is expected to deliver two back-to-back half-point interest rate hikes in May and June to tackle runaway inflation," Reuters. So, the reactions of central banks in the US and India are diametrically opposite, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell promising an aggressive response to inflation, CNBC, while Governor of RBI Shaktikanta Das promised to maintain accommodative monetary policy with a happy smile, ET. The unemployment rate in the US has plunged to 3.6%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. "The Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy's monthly time series data revealed that the overall unemployment rate in India was 8.10 percent in February 2022, which fell to 7.6 percent in March," ET. The population of India being more than 4 times that of the US, it means a slight fall in unemployment translates to many more consumers. "US consumer spending increased more than expected in January, offering the economy a strong boost at the start of the first quarter," Reuters. Consumer spending in India also increased sharply in January 2022, tradingeconomics. The argument for a loose monetary policy in India is that rising prices are due to restrictions in supply and hence increasing the cost of borrowing will not decrease prices by increasing supplies. The US government distributed $2.2 trillion, $900 billion and $1.9 trillion in stimulus money which is partly responsible for rising prices, Forbes. A recent paper by the IMF suggests that free food distributed under the Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Anna Yojana (PMGKAY) has drastically reduced severe poverty, News18. If poor people do not have to spend for food that frees up any money they have for other spending. A huge stimulus. High prices assisted in elevating GST collections to a record Rs 1.42 trillion in March, ET. Helps the government. Hence the happy smile.

A question of who loses more.

"Rather than a direct war, the list of sanctions imposed on Russia is going to work in favor of the US," wrote Profs Nilanjan Banik & Guido Cozzi. Countries like Finland, Sweden and Moldova will want to join the EU. Thus, "Without a shot being fired, the US action will ensure a geopolitical victory." Demand for US Treasuries will result in lower yields which will keep interest rates down. Maybe not. "The dollar index was back above 100 on Tuesday (today) morning, supported by high US yields ahead of inflation data that is expected to show US prices gained the most in 16 years, reinforcing expectations of aggressive Fed tightening policy," BS. "Global sanctions on Russia for its invasion of Ukraine have contributed to surging oil and gas prices -- at a time when US inflation was already at a forty year high," wrote Rachel Lawler. "According to our most recent PPIC survey, two-thirds of Californians report experiencing financial hardship due to recent price increases, with 35% saying they have faced serious hardship." "Oil prices rose 2% on Friday (8 April) but notched their second straight weekly decline after countries announced plans to release crude from their strategic stocks," Reuters. Gas prices at US pumps averaged over $4 per gallon yesterday, while the average price of diesel was over $5 per gallon, eia. "The Federal Reserve is expected to deliver back-to-back half-point interest rate hikes in May and June to tackle runaway inflation, according to economists polled by Reuters who also say the probability of a recession next year is 40%." "The monthly mortgage payment it takes to buy the typical home in the US is up by a staggering 55% compared with the start of last year," npr. Because of a rise in house prices with increasing interest rates. "The once seemingly ironclad West-centric world order is teetering -- upending many of the cosy Western assumptions about its hegemony over international relations," and "there's real concern among Western leaders over their failure to build a broader coalition against Russia -- and alarm over the anti-West sentiment across large swathes of Asia, Africa, the Middle East and Latin America," wrote Hasan Suroor. Because of repeated use of the dollar as a weapon, "Countries may explore new mechanisms to transact bypassing the US dollar," "But experts say it is unlikely the dollar's dominant role will be challenged for now," TOI. China has developed its own Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) and is developing its digital yuan, the e-CNY to bypass the dollar based Swift system, wrote Andy Mukherjee. The Chinese yuan cannot be trusted, so India should also develop its Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) and use it for trade with our neighbors, News18. In time, countries could trade in their digital currencies, bypassing the dollar. "Dethroning the dollar is easier said than done," because it still makes up 60% of foreign currency reserves of central banks, BQ. Maybe, but can the peoples of the US and Europe withstand rising prices and falling living standards if the war is prolonged? Sanctions will not be removed even if Russia stops its invasion, so it has nothing to gain. It should continue what it set out to do. See if the West has the stomach.

Where shall we go?

"Delhi's Jawaharlal Nehru University once again witnessed violence on Sunday when two groups of students clashed over meat being served in the hostel canteen on the occasion of Ram Navami," Firstpost. "There are two versions of what happened on Sunday: according to the Left's JNU students' union (JNUSU), the members of Akhil Bharatiya Vidyarthi Parishad (ABVP) created a ruckus, and assaulted members of the Kaveri hostel mess over cooking of chicken on Sunday. ABVP members alleged that members of Left-wing student outfits disrupted a prayer ceremony organised on the occasion of Ram Navami by shouting slogans." In August 2021, the Dr Hari Singh Gour University in Sagar, Madhya Pradesh withdrew from an international seminar on 'Cultural and Linguistic Hurdles in the Achievement of Scientific Temper' because of bullying by ABVP, TIE. The ABVP objected to speakers that they deemed to be anti-national. "On April 4, South Delhi Municipal Corporation Mayor, Mukkesh Suryaan has ordered closure of meat shops in South Delhi during the Hindu festival of Navratri," opindia. Such constraints on Hindus to celebrate a Hindu festival is mystifying. "Hinduism is more of a way of life than a religion," and "there is no single founder of Hinduism and neither any single text nor any single God like other religions," TOI. "The Dharma in Hinduism is called 'Sanatana Dharma' and the definition of Dharma is different from religion. Dharma is a set of rules, Sanatan Dharma is those rules which are valid since eternity." These rules certainly do not include beating up people if they choose not to pray on a certain day. Rama is not worshiped in West Bengal. "While Durga puja is the state's biggest annual festival, and daughters Laxmi and Saraswati are among the most popular household deities, temples dedicated to Radha-Krishna, Shiva and Kali dot West Bengal's towns and villages," HT.  While people in Delhi were celebrating Rama, people in West Bengal were worshiping Goddess Annapurna. "National Family Health Survey 4 data suggest that 70 percent of women and 78 percent of men in the country consume some form of meat," India Today. "Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Odisha and Jharkhand are states where the proportion of non-vegetarians is more than 97 percent. In contrast, Punjab, Haryana, Gujarat and Rajasthan have the least non-vegetarian population (below 40 percent) government data show." If vegetarianism is meant to signify kindness to animals, beating up people to show that kindness seems extraordinary. As per the government, "Hindus make up 79.8% of India's 1.2 billion people in the 2011 census. 94% of the world's Hindus live in India," BBC. If we get beaten up in our only home in the name of Hinduism where will we go? We are here because our gods are all around us.