Saturday, February 26, 2022

Rise to the challenge.

Referring to the strife in Ukraine, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said, "India's development is going to be challenged by the newer challenges emanating in the world," TOI. True, but that is why we have 78 members in the Council of Ministers, of which 30, excluding the prime minister, are of full cabinet rank, India.gov, at an astronomical cost to the taxpayer. The US gets by with 16 cabinet members, including the vice-president, and 9 officials of cabinet rank, wikipedia. According to the World Bank, India's nominal GDP was about $2.7 trillion in 2020, while that of the US was about $21 trillion. The US dollar is the world's reserve currency and makes up over 60% of foreign currency reserves of central banks, The Balance. "As of 2018, the US had $1,671 billion in circulation. As much as half that value is estimated to be in circulation abroad." The US dollar is the official currency in Ecuador. El Salvador and Zimbabwe and is widely accepted in many others, Business Insider. The Indian rupee, on the other hand, is only partially convertible and Reserve Bank (RBI) permission is needed to take large amounts out of the country, BS. A fully convertible rupee would make business transactions easier but the danger is that large numbers of individuals may decide to hedge against future rupee devaluation by buying foreign currency or bonds which will lead to a fall in the rupee's exchange rate, pushing up inflation. At present, Indians hedge against inflation by buying gold, a total of Rs 3.40 trillion worth in 2021, TIE. All this means that the Indian government and the RBI should have been more protective about the Indian rupee. India's "Fiscal deficit for 2020-21 was at 9.3 percent of the gross domestic product (GDP), lower than 9.5% estimated by the Finance Ministry in the revised Budget estimates, according to the CGA (Controller General of Accounts) data," ET. In absolute terms the government borrowed Rs 18.21461 trillion that year. The fiscal deficit for 2021-22 is now expected to be 6.9% of GDP, as against 6.8% projected in the Budget, ET. A total of Rs 15.91089 trillion. The fiscal deficit for 2022-23 is projected at 6.4% of GDP, NDTV. This, despite the fact that the government earned Rs 8.02 trillion from taxes on petrol and diesel in the 3 years to 2021, the FM said, NDTV. From April to September 2021, it raked in another Rs 1.71 trillion, BS. All this extra borrowing means that the Center's debt-to-GDP ratio is 59.9% in 2021-22, while that of the states is 31%, giving a total debt-to-GDP ratio of 90.9%, Mint. In January, India's crude oil basket was at $85.6 per barrel, with Goldman Sachs predicting $100 per barrel in the 3rd quarter, HT. Brent crude is trading at $97.93 today, oilprice.com. Ignoring inflation and the rupee, the RBI has clung to an interest rate of 4% since March 2020, Fortune. A report by Nomura suggests that, because of Ukraine, inflation will rise in India, and not fall as the RBI dreams, ET. Sitharaman is wistful about lack of peace in Ukraine. What if the civil war in Yemen drags in Iran and Saudi Arabia? She would perhaps be better prepared if she thought about the nation. Wouldn't have been such a challenge.
 

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