Saturday, February 05, 2022

The fourth risk to wealth.

"For the world's richest people, there used to be three ways to see a fortune disappear: Death, default or divorce," BS. "The past few months have added another risk: Sky-high valuations of giant technology companies falling from the stratosphere." For example, "The mega market hammering suffered by Facebook parent Meta...--it recorded its worst-ever 26% crash and suffered a $230 billion erosion in market capitalization -- had a silver lining for the two richest Indians. As Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg lost nearly $31 billion in networth, Mukesh Ambani and Gautam Adani moved ahead of him in the world's rich list, Forbes data showed." On the other hand, networth of Amazon founder Jeff Bezos jumped by $18.8 billion as Amazon shares soared because of higher earnings and a hike in subscription fees for Amazon Prime. However, these are notional gains and losses, which will be realised only if Messrs Zuckerberg and Bezos sell their shares, whereas divorce losses are absolute. In July 2019, "Amazon.com Inc AMZN.O founder Jeff Bezos' divorce from his wife of 25 years, McKenzie Bezos, was finalized by a Seattle-area judge.., paving the way for her to receive $38.3 billion worth of stock, Bloomberg reported," Reuters. She received 19.7 million or 4% of Amazon shares while he retained 12% worth $114.8 billion. Share prices are gyrating wildly. "For most of January, the Federal Reserve's shift toward a tighter monetary policy, along with soaring inflation, were largely responsible for a fierce downward spiral in the market," ET. Now it is earnings reports by companies. "The Bank of England raised interest rates to 0.5 percent...and nearly half of its policymakers wanted a bigger increase to contain rampant price pressures, as the central bank warned inflation will soon top 7 percent. In a surprise decision, four of the nine members of the Monetary Policy Committee wanted to raise interest rates by half a percentage point to 0.75 percent," ET. Last week, "Asian shares plunged to their lowest in nearly 15 months, short-term US yields hit 23-month highs and the dollar strengthened...after the Federal Reserve's chairman signalled plans to steadily tighten policy," yahoo. "Deutsche analysts point out that while some currencies managed to save face here and there, anyone who took the approach of hedging forex risk would have seen only one year that started worse than this one since 2021," Reuters. However, emerging market (EM) stocks performed better than in developed countries. Maybe because weaker currencies will increase exports by making goods cheaper. Sadly for India, exports rose 49.66% to $301.38 billion during April-December 2021, but imports surged by 68.91% to $443.82 billion, leaving a trade deficit of $142.44 billion, TOI. "When the Finance Minister announced on February 1, a higher than anticipated borrowing program, yields on government securities shot up and their prices crashed," wrote Balachandran. A clear signal that markets anticipate higher inflation. However, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman reassured traders because she has been transparent," ET. She maybe sanguine about her ability to collect taxes but what if the rupee falls in value against the dollar. Imports will become more expensive and inflation will rise. She should beware of the big ogre -- the US Fed. 

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