If it ain't working.

The unnecessary face off in Ukraine will see shortage of 5 essential commodities - energy, food, transport, metals and microchips, ET. Russia is a big supplier of gas and "Global gas reserves are low due to the pandemic and energy prices are already rising sharply, impacting consumers and industry." Sunflower oil, wheat, nickel, copper, iron, neon, palladium and titanium come from Russia and Ukraine. About 90% of neon, which is used in chip lithography comes from Russia, and Ukraine and Russia are suppliers of platinum and palladium, essential for microchip production. A quarter of the global supply of wheat and a fifth of corn come from Ukraine and Russia. "Russia is also a major low-cost exporter of nearly every kind of fertilizer. It's hard to overstate how important fertilizer is to the food supply chain." India's "Food inflation was less than 1% in September-October 2021, but shot up to 5.4% overall and 5.9% in urban areas by January 2022," wrote Prof Himanshu. Within this, edible oils have risen 24% in the last 18 months and the wholesale price index (WPI) inflation has risen by double-digits for 10 straight months, thus increasing input costs. As the price of crude oil has shot up so cereals are being diverted for the production of ethanol. Benchmark Brent crude is trading at $100.99 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate at $96.49 per barrel this morning, oilprice.com. As a result, "India, which imports 85 percent of its crude oil requirements, is expected to almost double its import bill to $110-115 billion by the end of the fiscal year 2021-2022," NDTV. India's demand for crude oil is expected to hit a record 214.5 million tons in the financial year starting on 1 April, according to the Oil Ministry. "If crude oil price rises to an average of $100 ($90 per barrel) from the current average $74 per barrel, inflation is likely to increase by 52-65 bps (32-40 bps), according to a research report from State Bank of India (SBI)," TIE. The government reduced excise duty on petrol by Rs 5 per liter and on diesel by Rs 10 per liter in November, Reuters, and this could lead to a shortfall of Rs 950 billion to Rs 1 trillion in revenue collection. "India's economy grew by 5.4% year-on-year in the third quarter of the current fiscal year, data from the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation showed," ET. Economists were predicting 6% growth. "At Rs 38.22 lakh crore (Rs 38.22 trillion) -- the output in the third quarter -- the GDP is smaller than Rs 38.96 lakh crore (Rs 38.96 trillion) reported in Q4FY21 (January-March 2021)," FE. Agriculture grew at 2.6% y-on-y, down from 4.5% in Q2, manufacturing was stagnant, capacity utilisation remained at around 70%, and the construction sector contracted. Private final consumption expenditure (PFCE) grew 7%, mainly due to base effect, and capital formation, which shows new investment, grew 2% despite base effect. "Inflation is getting a free pass in India," in the belief that low borrowing costs will encourage investment, create jobs and increase growth, wrote Andy Mukherjee. But higher costs are forcing small industries to close. However, the Reserve Bank (RBI) is to cling to its failed policy of negative real interest rate, to reduce the government's borrowing cost, Mint. "If something ain't working, it ain't working. You can't stick with it," thinks Amy Sherman-Palladino. But, you can stick your head in the sand. Works for the RBI.