It's win-win-win. Just don't try to win.

Is it real or just posturing? Tensions between Russia and Ukraine have been rising since last year when Russia accused Ukraine of failing to honor a 2015 peace deal, which granted "broad autonomy to rebel regions" and "sweeping amnesty to the rebels" in the east of Ukraine, npr. "Moscow has strongly criticized the US and its NATO allies for providing Ukraine with weapons and holding joint drills, saying that encourages Ukraine hawks to try to regain the rebel-held areas by force." In 2020, "On May 15, the US Ambassador in Warsaw, Georgette Mosbacher, suggested relocating US weapons based in Germany to Poland," Brookings. As a result, "Russia has Iskandr -M ballistic missiles in Kaliningrad. With a range of up to 500 kilometers, these missiles could strike targets in almost all of Poland within a matter of minutes and with very little warning." In 2017, the US agreed to supply Patriot anti-missile system to Poland for $10.5 billion, dw. NATO has a long history of antagonizing Russia. "NATO has four multinational battalion-size battlegroups in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania (which have borders with Russia) and Poland," and a "ballistic missile defense center in Romania", CNN. First open bases on Russia's borders and, when Russia tries to protect itself, sell missiles systems worth billions of dollars. So, who gains from this game of chicken? Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky is facing many challenges with falling popularity. "Many people are also unhappy that the government hasn't yet delivered on benefits it promised and ended the conflict in the country's east. Anti-government protests have taken place in Kyiv." US President Joe Biden's popularity is also falling, since the shambolic retreat from Afghanistan, BBC. In a Reuters/Ipsos poll, "44% of US adults approved of Biden's performance in office while 51% disapproved and the rest were not sure". People are also unhappy with Biden's party, the Democrats. "In the first quarter of 2021, about 49% of Americans identified with or leaned toward the Democratic Party, compared with just 40% for the Republican Party, according to Gallup." By the fourth quarter, 47% of Americans identified or leaned towards the GOP and just 42% identified with the Democrats, Fortune. November is far away but it looks like the Republicans could win both the House and the Senate, leaving Biden a lame duck, with 2 years still to go. "House Democrats are retiring in numbers not seen in decades as a dire political outlook, new district lines and a negative environment at the US Capitol have combined into a toxic brew," with 30 Democrats not seeking re-election in 2022 compared to only 13 Republicans, CNN. Ukraine has given Biden the opportunity to match "every Putin chess move with an effective counter of his own", wrote an admiring Thomas L Friedman. Russia gains from oil and gas prices. After rising to $100 per barrel on 17 February, Brent crude futures are trading at $92.29 a barrel, CNBC. This is a huge jump from an average price of $39.68 in 2020 and $68.17 last year, macrotrends. Natural gas prices have doubled from an average of $2.03 per million BTU to $4.53 this year, macrotrends. Russia exports both oil and gas. So Russia announced partial withdrawal of troops from Ukraine border, TIE, but Biden warned that "Russia could invade Ukraine within days", AP. This game is a win-win-win for Zelensky, Biden and Putin. As long as no one tries to win.