Saturday, February 12, 2022

QE to QT: no choice.

Under quantitative easing (QE), the US Federal Reserve's assets "have ballooned to $8.9 trillion, from under $1 trillion before the 2008 crisis", Business Insider. "Now, however, the Fed is set to raise interest rates as it tackles inflation. And to give it more firepower, the Fed has also said it's likely to stop reinvesting the money from its maturing bonds, gradually reducing its support for the fixed-income market." "The stock of assets purchased under QE" "stands at 30% of gross domestic product (GDP) in the US and 40% in Britain", wrote Mervyn King in July 2021. "Today, policymakers are struggling to explain how or even whether QE will be unwound. They're rightly concerned about triggering a sharp market reaction to signals that asset purchases will be tapered, but the longer the confusion persists, the greater the possible damage." The opposite of QE has been labeled quantitative tightening (QT), which was tried in 2018. The S&P 500 dropped more than 6% and "After about 10 months, the central bank reversed policy." "The US Federal Reserve is preparing to raise interest rates in March, and last Friday's jobs report fueled speculation it may need to move aggressively. The Bank of England just delivered back-to-back hikes, and some of its officials wanted to act even more forcefully. The Bank of Canada is set for liftoff next month. Even the European Central Bank may get in on the action later this year," ET. In the US, "Nonfarm payrolls surged by 467,000 for the month (January), while unemployment rate edged higher to 4%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics," CNBC. "December which initially was reported as a gain of 199,000, went up to 510,000. November surged to 647,000 from the previously reported 249,000. For the two months alone, the the initial counts were revised up by 709,000." "The consumer price index for January, which measures the costs of dozens of consumer goods, rose 7.5% compared with a year ago, the Labor department reported," CNBC. "Stripping out gas and grocery costs, the CPI increased 6%, compared with the estimate of 5.9%." "The UK economy rebounded last year with growth of 7.5% despite falling back in December due to Omicron restrictions, official figures show," BBC. "It was the fastest pace of growth since 1941." "Inflation is at its highest rate for 30 years, having risen 5.4% in the 12 months to December," BBC. "Spiking energy prices are raising utility bills from Poland to the United Kingdom, leaving people struggling to make ends meet and small businesses uncertain about how much longer they can stay afloat," firstpost. "Utilities are passing the costs along to customers, and customers are getting hit twice: with higher bills at home and rising prices from businesses also paying more for energy." The global supply chain crisis "could finally start to unwind towards the end of this year", "But trade channels have become so clogged up it could be well into next year before the worst-hit industries see business remotely as usual," ET. Hesitant supplies with higher demand due to jobs growth can only push prices up. "India is prepared to deal with any situation arising out of global developments, including the US Federal Reserve's decision to roll back monetary easing," said Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman. Because, young people are not getting jobs and millions are doing low grade work because they cannot afford to sit idle, BBC. No jobs, no demand, no rise in prices. No worries.       

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