"Chief Economic Adviser V Anantha Nageswaran...expressed hope that India would become a USD 5 trillion economy by FY26 or the next year on the back of 8-9 percent sustained growth. Gross domestic product (GDP) in dollar terms has already crossed 3 trillion he said," ET. India's GDP contracted by 6.6% in FY21 (financial year 2020-21), and not by the provisional estimate of 7.3%, according to the first revised estimate by the National Statistical Office, moneycontrol. It is not explained if this is a base effect because India's growth in FY20 has been revised down from 4% to 3.7%. Details show that except for agriculture, forestry, fishing, which grew by 3.3%, and government expenditure, which grew by 3.6%, every other metric went down. In a deluge of good news, "India was the world's largest exporter of gherkins (pickling cucumber) in 2020-21, shipping over 223,000 tonnes worth more than $200 million, the ministry of commerce and industry said. India produces about 15% of the world's gherkin requirement and ships it to 20 countries," wrote Manjul Paul. But, "In the seven days ending 22 January, the daily average domestic air passenger traffic fell hugely for the third straight week, owing to covid's third wave." Flying isn't cheap. "The civil aviation industry has to pay 21 percent of its revenues as indirect taxes and this "unreasonable proposition" is resulting in a chronically ill sector, IndiGo CEO Ronojoy Dutta said." "Dutta requested the Ministry of Finance to reduce central excise taxes on fuel from 11 percent to 5 percent." No chance. "Jet fuel or ATF price...was hiked by 4.2 percent - the second increase in rates this month warranted by firming international prices," ET. By October 2021, aviation turbine fuel (ATF) prices had been raised by 9% in one month and by over 80% in the last one year, HT, so that it reached its highest level by mid-November. It was reduced twice on 1 and 15 December. "While there are exceptions, hyper-nationalism is usually disastrous for an economy in the long run," wrote Prof Kaushik Basu. This was exemplified by Argentina, which was expected to overtake the US economy, until an army coup in 1930 brought in hyper-nationalist Gen Uhuru who increased tariffs and curtailed immigration. The US surged ahead. This is not the only example of Argentina. In a speech in 2018, then Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank (RBI) Viral Acharya warned against raiding RBI reserves and interfering with its independence as Argentina did in 2010, BT. The RBI was made to transfer Rs 1.76 trillion from its reserves in 2019, ET, and Rs 991.22 billion for a period of 9 months on 31 March 2021, BS. India is moving towards import substitution and protection and a phased manufacturing program, tried even in the pre-reform era with disastrous consequences, wrote Prof Arvind Panagariya. Despite all this we will double our GDP. Somebody must be a genius.
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