Wednesday, February 16, 2022

Completely in sync.

"The Indian economy is poised to grow at the quickest pace among the league of large nations on the back of various initiatives taken by the Budget 2022-23, said Finance Ministry's Monthly Economic Review," ET. "The Budget has targeted a nominal GDP growth of 11.1 percent in 2022-23 with a GDP deflator of 3.0-3.5 percent." The implied growth rate is 8% and this will come on the back of manufacturing and construction. The Reserve Bank (RBI) echoed ministry's optimism. "The 2022-23 Budget proposals and the recent monetary policy announcements have set the tone for a durable and broad-based economic revival which has started gaining traction as the nation emerges from the third wave of COVID-19 pandemic, according to a RBI article," ET. "Both manufacturing and services remain in expansion with optimism on demand parameters  and uptick in consumer and business confidence." "Growth in India's factory activity slowed to a four-month low in January as COVID-19 curbs hurt new orders and output, while high price pressures weighed on business confidence about the year ahead," as the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell from 55.5 in December to 54.0 in January, Reuters. "India's Industrial Production (IIP) fell to 0.4 percent in December 2021 from 1.3 percent in the previous month (November 2021), according to official data. This is the slowest growth in 10 months," BT. "India's core sector growth improved marginally to 3.8% in December from a nine-month low of 3.4% in the month before, data released by commerce and industry ministry showed," ET. Much of this is base effect because "The core sector had contracted by 0.4% in December 2020." "The seasonally adjusted India Services Business Activity (PMI) fell to 51.5 in January, down from 55.5 in December," ET. "Wholesale prices in January rose 12.96% from a year earlier, less than previous month's 13.56%, government data showed," Reuters. Input prices rose despite a slowdown in manufacturing and services due restrictions to control the third wave of Covid-19. The RBI's survey of consumer confidence (CCS) showed, "While the Current Situation Index (CSI) in the CCS has improved marginally between the November 2021 and January 2022 round, the future expectations index (FEI) has actually fallen compared to the previous round," HT. India's GDP growth rate in 2019-20, that is before the pandemic, has been reduced from 4% to 3.7%, HT. Naturally, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of private final consumption expenditure (PFCE) in the 4 years between 2016-17 and 2019-20 fell compared to the previous 4 years between 2011-12 and 2015-16 in India, whereas it went up from 7.6% to 9.0% in the rest of the world, wrote Roshan Kishore and Vineet Sachdev. Not certain that the RBI should be echoing the government during ongoing elections in 5 states, NDTV. Should remember what Abraham Lincoln said about fooling people.

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