Tuesday, February 08, 2022

Deliberate gobbledygook.

"The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is likely to keep its repo, the rate at which it lends to banks, on hold after the monetary policy committee (MPC) meeting this week. However, some analysts feel that the central bank may hike the reverse repo rate, the rate at which it borrows, as a part of its move to normalise liquidity," TOI. The RBI "may raise the reverse repo rate by about 15-40 basis points (0.15-0.40%) while pencilling measures to support the Union Budget that pump primed growth with larger capex and record market borrowings," ET. "Citing the massive spike in credit growth during the first half and the steeper fall in deposits and the resultant rise in term money rates, coupled with the record high borrowings, an SBI (State Bank of India) report has called for a 20 bps in reverse repo rate outside the MPC ambit so that the central bank finds buyers for the flooding new debt papers. The budget 2023 has pegged the Center's gross borrowing at a record Rs 14.3 lakh crore (Rs 14.3 trillion) and for the FY22 at Rs 10.5 lakh crore, lower than the Rs 13.5 lakh crore this fiscal, while together with the states, the gross borrowing will be Rs 23.3 lakh crore and net will be Rs 17.8 lakh crore," ET. We are required to guess what this gobbledygook means. 1. Borrowings from banks has increased along with a fall in savings. People save money in banks, on which banks pay interest, and banks then lend this money to people, to buy houses or cars, or to industry at higher rates to earn profits. People are saving less in banks because "Real interest rates have turned negative in India (which means the interest rate is lower than inflation), as has happened in the US and Europe some years back. This has created many problems for savers, especially senior citizens, many of whom have kept money safely with banks," moneycontrol. "Economists call this financial repression." The RBI is solely responsible for this repression as it has stubbornly held interest rate at 4% since May 2020, even as it fatuously projects retail inflation at 5.3%, HT. 2. Banks are required by law to keep a portion of savings in safe assets like cash, gold and government bonds. This is the Statutory Liquidity Ratio (SLR), wikipedia, an easy way for government borrowing. 3. Banks are also required to hold a certain portion of deposits in cash. This is the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR), BS. At present the SLR is at 18% and CRR is at 4%, myloancare. 4. Along with high inflation and negative returns from savings there is massive unemployment. "For India's employment-to-population ratio to be at the global average, nearly 600 million people need to be at work. Currently, only a little more than 400 million are," wrote Andy Mukherjee. "200 million jobs are missing from the economy." People borrow when in financial distress. "The share of personal loans in bank credit has for the first time overtaken overall loans to the industry sector during the second quarter of the current financial year," TOI. Loans have to be repaid. The RBI is repressing people to help the government. Gobbledygook needed to hide it from us.    

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