Wednesday, March 31, 2021

It may not be our fault, but we will be made to pay.

"Fiscal year 2020-21 ends today, March 31. With an estimated annual contraction of 8% in GDP, 2020-21 has been the worst year in terms of economic performance in India since 1950-51, the earliest period for which data is available," wrote Roshan Kishore. Agriculture was the best performing sector with growth of 3%, but since it has a share of only 16% in gross value added (GVA), it could not prevent the economy from contracting. Services, with a share of 54.6% in GVA, suffered the most. The periodic labor force survey (PLFS) for April-June 2020 revealed a doubling of unemployment rate to 20%. The Center for Monitoring Indian Economy "(CMIE) estimates also suggest that the pandemic has led to further worsening of the gender gap in India's labor market." The labor force participation rate (LFPR) for women was 21%, one of the lowest in the world, even before the pandemic, wrote Udit Misra. "Sneha Dwivedi, the youngest member in her family of six in Atiswa village of Lucknow district, is a 'Shakti' micro-entrepreneur with Hindustan Unilever (HUL), distributing soaps, detergents and sanitisers to households," reported Times of India. She is among 140,000 working for HUL's Project Shakti, "A rural distribution network of HUL, Shakti was set up to enhance livelihoods and build opportunities for women micro-entrepreneurs in the hinterland." Life is still uncertain for millions of migrant workers who somehow made it back to their villages when the lockdown was suddenly enforced with just 4 hours notice. "The total number of migrant workers who returned to their home states was 1,04,66,152 (10.44 million, 1.04 crore), Santosh Kumar Gangwar, minister of state of labour and employment, said in a parliamentary response in September last year." Retail inflation fell to 4.1% in January 2021 but jumped to 5.03% in February. "The 2020 inflationary surge and subsequent moderation was largely driven by food prices, but over the past few months non-food inflation has been slowly gaining momentum in the economy." "The central government's plan to borrow a massive Rs 12 lakh crore Rs 12 trillion) in 2021-22 and additional Rs 80,000 crore (Rs 800 billion) in fiscal 2021 from the market has spooked the bond market," reported The Economic Times. "Already, the borrowing program of the central government for this financial year till date has been around Rs 13.17 lakh crore and those of state governments around Rs 7.17 lakh crore." So, what about revenues? "The Central government has collected only 47 percent of the revised full-year target of Rs 6.90 lakh crore (Rs 6.90 trillion) GST collection," reported Financial Express. "The coronavirus pandemic may have shrunk India's middle-class population by 32 million and driven 75 million below the poverty line in 2020, a Pew Research report said," wrote Asit Ranjan Misra. Despite strenuous government effort, "Official data of tax return filers in the current season showed that the number of individuals filing income tax returns claiming no taxable income has gone up," reported Mint. That will mean aggressive tax terrorism. Terrifying.      

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