Saturday, March 27, 2021

Let others worry, we are sanguine.

Following a meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on 16-17 March, "Federal Reserve officials continued to project near-zero interest rates at least through 2023, while upgrading their economic outlook to reflect greater optimism over the US recovery from Covid-19 amid a surge in Treasury yields," wrote Craig Torres. "Excluding food and energy, inflation is forecast to hit 2.2% this year and fall to 2% in 2022." "US central bankers left asset purchases unchanged at $120 billion a month and repeated that this pace will be maintained until 'substantial further progress' is made on their employment and inflation goals." Funds rate was kept at 0-0.25%. "Is the Federal Reserve losing control of the bond market?" asked Mohamed El-Erian, is liquidity responsible for bond market volatility and will this volatility affect the US economy. "The yield on benchmark 10-year Treasury note on Monday rose to 1.200%, its highest since March 2020," reported Reuters. Yields closed at 1.674% on Friday. "The recent pace of the rise in yields in the US Treasury market has been unsettling, according to several major bond fund managers who worry the market could be viewed as disorderly if the pace of rises continues." "The risk is significant and rising that the Fed will be less able to tame the bond market anytime soon because the high-probability means to do so -- active yield curve control -- comes with its own set of significant risks to market functioning, efficient price signalling and pro-productivity/growth allocation of resources throughout the economy," El-Erian feels, but the US economy will not be affected. "Indian government bonds are the 'good stuff' and must sell," wrote Andy Mukherjee. "Yet, a yield of just about 6% on 10-year rupee paper from a barely investment grade sovereign has none of the kick of the near 21% rate of return offered by a D-rated private borrower on a five-year note." "Foreigners have pulled out billions of dollars from India's bond markets over the past 12 months. Even domestic banks have been shunning debt auctions ever since the government's 1 February budget delivered the unpleasant news of a planned 6.8% deficit for the upcoming fiscal year, on top of a 9.5% shortfall in the year that will end on 31 March." The reason for the lack of demand for Indian government bonds is that, "Economists are already raising red flags over the retail inflation trajectory," wrote Aparna Iyer. "In February, core inflation, which is inflation stripped of food and fuel, rose to almost 6%." Core inflation maybe without fuel inflation but, "Part of the rise in core inflation has also been the surge in fuel prices through transportation component." "I am now prepared to contemplate the possibility that China might get the better of America by 2030," wrote Prof Anantha Nageswaran. "American society, macro policy and capital markets have all decayed and remain decadent. The simultaneous bubbles in multiple asset classes (and some of them are not assets at all) is a tell-tale sign of a society that has lost all its bearings, perhaps beyond redemption." If the US booms, interest rate will go up, the dollar will become stronger, fueling further inflation in India and economy will tank. If China wins, it will attack us and pay Pakistan to do the same. Fortunately, we have the indigenous cow which can be the "foundation of Indian economy". We are invincible.       

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