Saturday, March 20, 2021

Is it tunnel vision or deliberate disinformation?

"Three decades after the start of inflation targeting (IT) policy in New Zealand, and after its adoption in 33 countries, a question worth asking is whether it has succeeded in its primary objective of reducing inflation," wrote economist Surjit S Bhalla. "The last two entrants to adopt the IT arsenal (an appropriate use of the warlike term is because its proponents do want to wage a war against the scourge of inflation) were Argentina and India in 2016." Argentina may have adopted IT, "But in 2018, market expectations about its prospects changed, triggering a deep, prolonged currency crisis that eventually rendered the country's foreign-currency-denominated public debt unsustainable," wrote Argentina's minister of economy Martin Guzman. Inflation rate shot up to over 50% in 2019 and was still over 40% in February 2021. This has resulted in a steep fall in the value of the peso against the US dollar, which in turn fuels inflation by raising the cost of imports. Targeting inflation through high interest rates has no effect on inflation control but was the "primary cause of the GDP growth decline from 8 percent (pre-IT) to 5 percent (post-IT)". Actually, GDP growth rate subsided to just 4% in 2019-20, before the onset of the coronavirus epidemic. Bhalla conveniently forgets the devastating effect of a sudden demonetization of 86.4% of total currency in circulation in November 2016 and the goods and services tax (GST) mess in 2017 which impacted growth according to a report by the State Bank of India (SBI). Not only is the GST extremely complex with many rates of taxes but is also the highest in the world according to the World Bank. "The tax rates in the Indian GST system are among the highest in the world. the highest GST rate in India, while only applying to a subset of goods and services traded, is 28 percent, which is the second highest among a sample of 115 countries which have a GST (VAT) system and for which data is available," the World Bank said in a report." The present governor of the Reserve Bank Shaktikanta Das was appointed in December 2018 when the repo rate was 6.50% since when it has fallen to 4%. In its latest meeting in February the RBI left the repo rate unchanged at 4% even as the consumer price index (CPI) rose to 5.03% in February compared to 4.06% in January. "With bond yields rising the world over, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has warned against bond vigilantes, stating they could undermine the recovery, unsettle financial markets and trigger capital outflows from emerging markets." "Yields on US Treasuries have surged to their highest level in more than a year from record lows hit in 2020, as Federal Reserve commitments to hold rates near zero for years to come encouraged investors to bet economic growth and inflation will heat up," reported Reuters. Goldman Sachs predicts that the US economy will grow by 8% this year although inflation will remain within the Fed's comfort zone of 2.1%. Consistently running inflation at a rate higher than that of the US means that the rupee will have adjust against the dollar and a weaker rupee will increase the cost of imports, which grew to $40.6 billion in February giving a trade deficit of $12.9 billion. Why blame others when so-called economists have tunnel vision?     

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